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Nick's 2005 MAC Football Picks - Week #9 Picks
published 10.26.05
Use these "quick links" to jump to the date of the game you want or scroll down the page for your favorite MAC matchups!
Saturday Games: Toledo @ Central Michigan, Miami @ Temple, Ohio @ Buffalo, Kent State @ Western Michigan, Ball State @ Northern Illinois, Akron @ Bowling Green
MAC Quick Notes
> Current MAC Standings (opens in new window)
- If Akron and Ohio win Saturday, the following four teams will be tied for first place in the East Division with 3-2 records: Akron, Bowling Green, Miami & Ohio
- If Central Michigan and Northern Illinois win Saturday, there will be a three-way tie for first with 4-1 records in the West Division as follows: Central Michigan, Northern Illinois & Toledo
- Five running backs in the MAC are averaging 100-plus yards per game, which puts the league on course to tie a single season record. In 2002, 1994 and 1975 the MAC ended the season with five players producing 100 or more yards on average. The current crop includes Garrett Wolfe, Northern Illinois (144.0); Brandon Murphy, Miami (133.3); Ontario Sneed, Central Michigan (103.7); Trinity Dawson, Toledo (102.9); and Kalvin McRae, Ohio (101.9)
- Three MAC wide receivers continue to move up the career charts. Western Michigan's Greg Jennings grabbed 8 passes for 162 yards and 2 touchdowns last week and now stands sixth all-time in receiving yards (3,177), 11th in receptions (209) and third in touchdowns (36). Bowling Green's Charles Sharon nabbed 8 receptions for 129 yards and boosted his career marks to 3,194 yards - fifth all-time - and 206 receptions - 12th all-time. Sharon did not have a touchdown last week but still ranks fourth all-time with 33 TD receptions. Miami's Martin Nance had 95 yards receiving, upping his all-time number to 2,902, the 10th highest in league history. Nance is 18 receptions shy of becoming the 15th receiver in MAC history to reach 200.
- Toledo continues to garner more votes among the national pollsters. The Rockets, 6-1 overall and 4-0 in the MAC, are tied for 30th in this week's A.P. poll, up six notches from last week and the school's highest ranking this season. UT is 34th in the USA TODAY/ESPN Coaches poll, also its highest ranking of 2005. Toledo's 38-15 win over Buffalo tied the Rockets' school record of 17 consecutive home wins. UT plays 3 of its final 4 games on the road, hosting Northern Illinois on November 16 as their lone remaining home game.
- Western Michigan's 45-14 win at Bowling Green snapped the Falcons regular-season home winning streak at 20. BG had lost a post season game to Miami in 2003, but from late 2000 through this season had not lost a regular season contest .
> Current MAC Standings (opens in new window)
SATURDAY - October 29
Toledo (6-1, 4-0 MAC) @Central Michigan (4-3, 3-1 MAC) - 1 pm ET
Television: FSN Ohio, Comcast Local, CSN Chicago (Michael Reghi, play-by-play; Bob Chmiel, analyst; Brooke Weisbrod, sideline).
Site: Mount Pleasant, Mich. - Kelly Shorts Stadium (30,199/Field Turf)
Series: Toledo leads 17-13-3 ... the Rockets have won the last 10 in a row and the last five meetings in Mount Pleasant.
Coaches: UT-Tom Amstutz (42-16, fifth season); CMU-Brian Kelly (8-10, 2nd season at CMU; 126-45-2, 15th season overall).
Game Notes:
- The Chippewas have a chance to grab a share of the division lead while Toledo can extend its top spot and take another step toward defending its MAC title
- Toledo leads the MAC in scoring offense (39.4 ppg), scoring defense (18.6 ppg allowed), total defense (295.9 ypg allowed), rushing defense (113.7 ypg allowed), pass efficiency defense (109.6 rating), fewest sacks against (8), fewest first downs allowed (124), best third down conversion percentage (51.1) and is tied for first in turnover margin (+8, 1.14 per game)
- CMU quarterback Kent Smith is a native of Toledo (Start High)
- The Chippewas are coming off a bye week and are riding a three-game winning streak
- The last CMU team to win four in a row was the 1994 squad, which was also the Chippewas last MAC Championship team
- Dan Bazuin needs one sack to tie the CMU school record
- UT's Trinity Dawson has three consecutive 100-yard plus rushing games
Nick’s Pick: Toledo 38 - CMU 27
Line: Toledo by 9
Comment: This is a huge game in the MAC West standings. Back when I did my season previews for Athlon Sports I asked Toledo’s Tom Amstutz who he thought was the divisional team to challenge Toledo & NIU in the west and he wasted no time saying “Central Michigan.” The Rockets will be ready for the ‘Chips and Central will be very well prepared. This game will go to the wire before Toledo pulls away with the win.
Miami (4-3, 3-2 MAC) @ Temple (0-8, Independent) - 1 pm ET
Site: Philadelphia, Pa. - Lincoln Financial Field (68,523/Natural Grass)
Series: First meeting.
Coaches: MIA-Shane Montgomery (4-3, 1st season); TU-Bobby Wallace (19-68, 8th season at Temple; 101-104-1, 18th season overall).
Game Notes:
- Miami escaped with a 24-23 road win last week at Eastern Michigan on a missed extra point with 13 seconds left in the game
- The Owls dropped a 37-7 contest at Clemson
- This is Temple's fourth game against a MAC opponent this year and its final home game for 2005
- Temple's 2005 schedule is the 14th toughest in I-A as rated by Sagarin
- Mike Mendenhall had three tackles for a loss last week and he has eight TFL in the last three games
- QB Mike McGann came off the bench last week to produce 298 passing yards (23-of-38) and needs 463 yards to reach 6,000 for his career
- Miami QB Josh Betts has 16 TD passes, the second highest total among MAC signal callers
- Miami WR Martin Nance has 10 of the scoring passes, also tied for second in the conference
- The RedHawks also feature the No. 2 leading rusher in Brandon Murphy (133.3 ypg) - Murphy has five consecutive 100 yard rushing games.
Nick’s Pick: Miami 38 – Temple 14
Line: Miami by 23
Comment: Temple does not have the perimeter speed to cover the offensive weapons that the RedHawks possess. Miami will not take the Owls lightly after their near upset at Eastern Michigan last week. That should be the wake up call Miami needs for their stretch run in November.
Ohio (3-4, 2-2 MAC) @Buffalo (0-7, 0-4 MAC) - 1:30 pm ET
Site: Buffalo, N.Y. - UB Stadium (29,013/Arificial Sportexc 46)
Series: Ohio leads 7-4 ... the teams have split the last four meetings ... since 1997, the home teams have won each game - Ohio 5, Buffalo 2 ... since joining the MAC in 1998, UB is 2-0 at home vs. Ohio.
Coaches: Ohio-Frank Solich (3-4, 1st season at Ohio; 61-23, 8th season overall); UB-Jim Hofher (7-46, 5th season at UB; 51-82, 13th season overall).
Game Notes:
- Ohio is 0-4 on the road and 3-0 at home - both of UB's wins last year were at home
- Ohio is third in the MAC in rushing offense (184.9 ypg) but last in passing offense (123.0 ypg)
- Bobcat tailback Kalvin McRae has two games with 200-plus rushing yards this season, including a national best of 264 yards last week
- UB has the top rated defense among East Division teams and third overall in the MAC allowing just 374 ypg
- The Bulls held a 12-10 second quarter lead on the road at defending MAC Champion Toledo last week before falling 38-15
- UB linemen Aaron Sanders and Rob Schroeder have combined for 17 tackles for 74 yards in losses
Nick’s Pick: Ohio 20 - Buffalo 17
Line: Ohio by 4
Comment: Something must give here, Ohio needs a road-win and Buffalo just needs a win. Both of these teams are looking at this game as a ‘must win’ contest so expect a dog fight. UB has had historical success against the Bobcats in Buffalo and just may get their first win of the season. But Ohio seems to be playing with some much needed confidence and should be able to grind out a victory over the Bulls.
Western Michigan (3-3, 1-2 MAC) @Kent State (1-6, 0-4 MAC) - 2 pm ET
Television: Comcast Local (Ben Holden, play-by-play; Rob Otto, analyst).
Site: Kalamazoo, Mich. - Waldo Stadium (30,200/NeXturf)
Series: WMU leads 31-17-1 ... the Broncos have won 11 in a row and 18 of the last 20 ... this is the first meeting since 2000.
Coaches: KSU-Doug Martin (6-12, 2nd season); WMU-Bill Cubit (4-3, 1st season at WMU, 38-21-1, 6th season overall).
Game Notes:
- The Broncos are coming off a 45-14 win at Bowling Green while Kent State suffered a 34-3 loss to Northern Illinois
- WMU has won four of its last five while KSU has dropped five in a row
- KSU LB Justin Parrish had a career-high 13 tackles vs. the Huskies. Parrish ranks second in tackles for a loss (12.5) and third in sacks (5.5) in the MAC
- DB Jack Williams leads the MAC in passes defended with 9 (6 break ups, 3 int.)
- WMU blocked a PAT (Cory Flom) and field goal (Paul Moersch) last week
- Moersch has three blocked kicks this season
- True freshman QB Tim Hiller completed 16-of-25 pass attempts for 258 yards and 3 TDs including an 89-yard strike to Greg Jennings vs. BGSU
Nick’s Pick: WMU 28 - Kent 17 Line: WMU by 7 Comments: The Broncos are flying sky high after their 31-point thumping of preseason MAC favorite Bowling Green, on the road no less. Kent State just can’t seem to get anything going right this season and their defense has played subpar all year. Western is not back to the point where they can just expect to win home games over lower tier conference foes but they should be able to handle the Golden Flashes. Cubit is now in the running for MAC coach of the year after last weekend’s upset. |
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Ball State (1-6, 1-3 MAC) @Northern Illinois (3-3, 2-1 MAC) - 3:05 pm CT
Television: CSN Chicago (Dave Kaplan, play-by-play; Tom Waddle, analyst; Brad Hoy, sideline)
Site: DeKalb, Ill. - Brigham Field at Huskie Stadium (28,000/Field Turf)
Series: BSU leads 17-13-2 ... the Huskies have won the last 6 meetings and the last 3 in DeKalb ... BSU's last win was in 1998, 18-13 in Muncie ... the Cardinals last win in DeKalb was in 1997, 21-14 ... last year's game went to overtime, a 38-31 NIU verdict.
Coaches: BSU-Brady Hoke (7-23, 3rd season); NIU-Joe Novak (51-58, 11th season).
Game Notes:
- After a 1-3 start, the Huskies have won three in a row
- One of NIU's losses was by one point and another in overtime, both on the road
- NIU leads the MAC in rushing (235.0 ypg) and received 252 yards and 3 TDs on 37 carries from reserve RB Adrian Davis last week
- Davis went from third string to starter after injuries to Garrett Wolfe (144.0 ypg) and A.J. Harris (52.0 ypg)
- All 5 NIU TDs last week were scored by a player named Davis - Adrian (3), TE Brandon (1) and WR Britt (1)
- BSU is trekking outside of Muncie for their fifth road game in the past 6 contests
- Joey Lynch ranks third in the MAC in completion pct. (64.8) and is tied for fourth in passing efficiency rating (131.8)
- Lynch's career 64.8 passing pct. ranks fifth on the active NCAA I-A charts
- True freshman Dante Love returned a kickoff 94 yards for a touchdown last week
Nick’s Pick: NIU 42 – Ball State 34
Line: NIU by 29
Comment: Through the years the Cardinals have played the Huskies very well, even during these past few season when NIU clearly had a much better team. BSU cannot stop the run which plays right into NIU’s game, plan but Ball State has shown glimpse of being a really good passing team this season. Expect a much closer contest than what the odds-makers believe.
Akron (3-4, 2-2 MAC) @Bowling Green (4-3, 3-1) - 4 pm ET
Site: Bowling Green, Ohio - Doyt L. Perry Stadium (23,724/Natural Grass)
Series: BG leads 8-5 ... this is the first meeting since 2001, a 16-11 Falcon win.
Coaches: UA-J.D. Brookhart (9-9, 2nd season); BG-Gregg Brandon (24-9, 3rd season).
Game Notes:
- BG will likely be without Omar Jacobs who hurt his shoulder in last week's loss to Western Michigan - Jacobs complete 6-of-9 passes for 98 yards before leaving the game
- Akron has dropped two in a row and has been outscored 41-0 in the last five quarters
- LB Jay Rohr continues to lead the Zips defense and had 11 solo stops in the loss to Army
- The Zips are one of two MAC teams with less than 100 rushing yards per game, but they are third in passing offense (272.4 ypg) and fourth in total defense (385.6 ypg allowed)
- BG’s Anthony Turner stepped in to complete 20-of-38 pass attempts for 242 yards
- Falcon RB B.J.Lane has a MAC best 8 rushing TDs this season
Nick’s Pick: BGSU 30 - Akron 20
Line: BGSU by 14
Comment: This is a “gut check” game for both teams. Akron lost at home last week to previously winless Army while BG lost by 31 points at home to Western Michigan as a huge favorite. BG has had enough time to dust themselves off and get a new game plan for backup QB Anthony Turner while Akron doesn’t look to be getting any better as the season continues. Look for BG to get back in the win column and for the Zips to continue their tailspin.
