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Nick's 2005 MAC Football Picks - Week #8 Picks
published 10.18.05
Use these "quick links" to jump to the date of the game you want or scroll down the page for your favorite MAC matchups!
Saturday Games: NIU @ Kent State, WMU @ Bowling Green, Miami @ EMU,
Army @ Akron, Buffalo @ Toledo, Ball State @ Ohio
MAC Quick Notes
> Current MAC Standings (opens in new window)
- Toledo shook off its "jinx" at Ball State, winning for just the second time in the last seven games in Muncie, improving to 3-0 in league play, just a half game in front Central Michigan
- The Chippewas (3-1 MAC) won their first game at home this year, beating Ohio 37-10 - CMU is idle this week before hosting Toledo and then Northern Illinois the next two weeks. The Chippewas have not won a divisional title since the league format began divisional play in 1997 and have not captured a league crown since 1994
- NIU (2-1 MAC) kept pace with a 24-8 triumph over Eastern Michigan.
- Bowling Green is 3-0 in MAC play while every other East Division team has at least two losses
- Several MAC defenses are improving compared to last year's final stats:
- Eastern Michigan is allowing 26 ppg vs. last year's 41 ppg
- Central Michigan is giving up 22 ppg vs. 34 ppg in 2005 and the Chippewas have not allowed a touchdown in the last four second halves
- Toledo ranks first in the MAC in scoring D, allowing 19 ppg after last year's 31 ppg. The Rockets also have four defensive touchdowns this season
- In Miami's 51-23 win over Akron, the RedHawks set an NCAA I-A scoring record by piling up 21 points in exactly one minute. In a span of 60 seconds of clock time in the fourth quarter, the RedHawks scored on a 2-yard run by Jimmy Murray (6:46), a 50-yard pass from Josh Beets to Martin Nance (6:07) and on a 15-yard run by Murray (5:46). The final two scores were set up by Akron fumbles. The previous record with 21 points in 1:04 by Kent State in a 1996, a 32-17 win over Akron
> Current MAC Standings (opens in new window)
SATURDAY - October 22
Northern Illinois (3-3, 2-1 MAC) @Kent State (1-5, 0-3 MAC) - 1 pm ET
Site: Kent, Ohio - Dix Stadium (29,287/Field Turf)
Series: NIU leads 12-7 ...this is the first meeting in the series since 2002, a 13-6 Huskie win in DeKalb ... the last game at Kent resulted in a 44-34 Golden Flashes' victory.
Coaches: KSU-Doug Martin (6-11, 2nd season); NIU-Joe Novak (50-58, 10th season).
Game Notes:
- KSU dropped its fourth in a row losing 34-31 at Navy after trailing 14-0 early in the game
- NIU will be without the services of the league's top ground gainer in Garrett Wolfe (144.0 ypg) who is out with a knee injury while backup A.J. Harris (52.0 ypg) is listed as questionable
- Adrian Davis (73 yards on 12 attempts last week) will be called on as the starter
- KSU is on the opposite end of the spectrum, ranking last in the league with 52.3 rushing yards per game
- The Golden Flashes are No. 2 in the MAC in passing yards (288.8 ypg)
- KSU linebacker Jon Sessler leads the MAC in tackles at 13.5 per game but is out for the season with a torn ACL
- NIU leads the MAC in total offense averaging 504 yards per game while Kent State ranks second to last in total defense giving up 466 ypg
- NIU is last in the MAC in turnover margin -1.67 and has been the league’s most penalized team (76 ypg)
Nick’s Pick: NIU 20 – Kent 16
Line: NIU by 10
Comment: NIU will be seriously hampered on offense due to injuries in their RB corps. The Huskies still like to run the ball and will do so but QB Phil Horvath will need to pick up much of the load as well. Kent State really needs a win but has gotten off to some very poor starts this season only to rally and fall just short in a few games. Thus far KSU has yet to run the ball effectively and that may hurt them in this contest since NIU may play 'keep away' and control the clock. Pick the Huskies in a close contest.
Ball State (1-5, 1-2 MAC) @Ohio (2-4, 1-2 MAC) - 2 pm ET
Television: FSN Ohio, Comcast Local, CSN Chicago, Adelphia 13 (Michael Reghi, play-by-play; Bob Chmiel, analyst; Brooke Weisbrod, sideline).
Site: Athens, Ohio - Peden Stadium (24,000/Field Turf)
Series: BSU leads 13-6 ... the Bobcats won the most recent meeting 37-25 in 1999 in Muncie ... the OU win in 1999 snapped an 8-game Cardinal winning streak in the series ... this will be the teams' first meeting in Athens since 1995.
Coaches: BSU-Brady Hoke (7-22, 3rd season); Ohio-Frank Solich (2-4, 1st season at Ohio; 60-23, 8th season overall).
Game Notes:
- Ohio is 2-0 at home and 0-4 on the road this season
- Ball State's lone win came at Western Michigan, 60-57 in a MAC record five-overtime game
- Both team's offenses provided just one touchdown in losses last week
- Ohio has two of the top 10 MAC rushing leaders in Kalvin McRae (6th at 74.8 ypg) and Voncairie Owens (10th, 40.4)
- BSU's rush defense allows a MAC high 230.5 ypg
- Cardinals QB Joey Lynch has already reached his passing TD total (9) from last year and in his last 9 starts dating back to last season has 17 TD passes with 6 INTs
- Ohio LB Matt Muncy ranks second in the MAC in tackles at 11.8 per game
- Ball State has produced the fewest QB sacks thus far (6) while Ohio has yet to make a 4th down conversion this season
- Ball State has the league’s worst statistical defense giving up 509 yards per game while Ohio is averaging just 282 offensive yards per game
Nick’s Pick: Ohio 24 - Ball State 23
Line: Ohio by 8
Comment: Ohio has yet to lose at home, although that stat is footnoted since they have only played two home games thus far this season and we are at the end of October. Ball State certainly has a chance to win this game but thus far they have had trouble stopping the run, ranking dead last in the MAC in rush defense. Ohio should win a hard fought and close contest.
Western Michigan (3-3, 1-2 MAC)
@Bowling Green (4-2, 3-0 MAC) - 4 pm ET
Television: BCSN (Dave Horger, play-by-play; Jon Mazur, analyst).
Site: Bowling Green, Ohio - Doyt L. Perry Stadium (23,724/Natural Grass)
Series: BG leads 31-14-3 ... the Falcons have won the last three meetings ... the 1996 game (WMU won) and 2002 contest (BG won) were overtime contests ... the Broncos most recent win in Bowling Green was in 1996 (16-13).
Coaches: WMU-Bill Cubit (3-3, 1st season at WMU, 37-21-1, 6th season overall); BG-Gregg Brandon (24-8, 3rd season).
Game Notes:
- The Falcons are looking to start 4-0 in the MAC for the second time in three years under Gregg Brandon
- WMU has already surpassed its win total (1) of last year
- Both teams are averaging over 30 ppg (BG 39, WMU 31)
- This will be the Broncos first game since a five-overtime 60-57 loss on Oct. 8 to Ball State
- BG has won three in a row after a 1-2 start
- Last week at Buffalo, Falcons QB Omar Jacobs had a career-low 178 passing yards but the BG running game gained 200 yards with B.J. Lane leading the way with 141 yards and three touchdowns
- WMU WR Greg Jennings leads the nation with 61 receptions and also has 735 yards and 9 TDs
- The BG defense has more interceptions (10) than TD passes allowed (6)
- BG ranks dead last in the MAC in kickoff returns (15 ypr) but 1st in the league in punt returns (15 ypr)
- Western is giving up 35 points per game in 2005 (11th of 12) while BG is averaging 39-points per game (2nd of 12)
Nick’s Pick: Line: Bowling Green by 25 Nick’s Prophetic Comment: The Falcons are heavily favored against the Broncos and BG is playing at home. Western Michigan has a very good offense and they are getting terrific play from their freshman QB. This should be an entertaining game that features a lot of points and exciting plays. BG will win, but Western will make a good game of it. |
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Miami (3-3, 2-2 MAC) @Eastern Michigan (3-4, 2-2 MAC) - 6 pm ET
Television: Comcast Local (Ben Holden, play-by-play; Rob Otto, analyst)
Site: Ypsilanti, Mich. - Rynearson Stadium (30,200/Field Turf)
Series: Miami leads 15-4 ... the RedHawks have won the last four ... the most recent meeting was in 2000, a 34-17 Miami win at Rynearson Stadium ... EMU's last success in the series was in 1994 in Oxford 21-17.
Coaches: MIA-Shane Montgomery (3-3, 1st season); EMU-Jeff Genyk (7-11, 2nd season).
Game Notes:
- Miami scored 21 fourth quarter points last week to provide distance in a 51-23 win over Akron
- The RedHawks have won three of their last four games after an 0-2 start
- Brandon Murphy's career-high 184 yards vaulted him into second place on the MAC rushing charts at 127 ypg
- Eastern Michigan was held out of the end zone for the second consecutive week in a 24-8 loss at Northern Illinois
- The Eagles are 2-0 at home and average 29 ppg
- Freshman LB Daniel Holtzclaw nabbed two INTs last week at NIU and those picks came against the league's top rated passer Phil Horvath
- EMU's defense is allowing 15 less ppg this season as opposed to last year (26 to 41)
- Three defensive Eagle sophomores rank among the league leaders with Jason Jones 7th in sacks (4.5), Darran Matthews tied for 4th in fumbles forced (2) and Blake Smith tied for fist in fumbles recovered (3)
- Miami leads the MAC in turnover margin at +1.67
- EMU has been the least penalized team in the league this year at just 36 ypg
Nick’s Pick: Miami 45 – Eastern Michigan 27
Line: Miami by 11
Comment: Miami seems to have turned the corner after their loss at NIU and even though they trail Bowling Green by two games, they know they still host the Falcons and that BG still must play Toledo. Therefore, there is still a slim shot at winning the MAC East Division. EMU continues to show improvements under the enthusiastic Jeff Genyk but they lack the talent of the RedHawks. Miami should pull away in the 2nd half of the game.
Army (0-6, Independent) @Akron (3-3, 2-2 MAC) - 6 pm ET
Site: Akron, Ohio - Rubber Bowl (31,000/AstroPlay) 
Series: Army leads 2-0 ... the last meeting came in 1993, a 35-14 win by the Black Knights ... this is the first meeting in Akron.
Coaches: Army-Bobby Ross (2-15, 2nd season at Army; 96-91-2, 17th season overall); UA-J.D. Brookhart (9-8, 2nd season).
Game Notes:
- This is the second game for the Black Knights vs. a MAC opponent as they lost at home to Central Michigan 14-10 on Oct. 8
- Three of the losses by Army are to ranked or previously ranked teams (Boston College, TCU, Iowa State)
- This is the second of three consecutive road games for Army
- The Zips' three wins have been close - one in overtime, one by six points and another by 10 points
- Brett Biggs had 153 yards and two TDs rushing at Miami, including runs of 33 and 34 yards, the longest of the year by any UA back - Biggs now averages 85 ypg rushing
- Domenik Hixon was held to 121 all-purpose yards but still ranks second nationally with 203.5 all-purpose yards per game
- Akron is coming off back-to-back road games (Buffalo, Miami) and will follow with another set of road games (Bowling Green, Ball State) the next two weeks
- Akron ranks 3rd in the MAC in QB sacks to date (14)
- Luke Getsy ranks 5th in the MAC in passing yards per game (265)
Nick’s Pick: Akron 27 - Army 20
Line: Akron by 10
Comment: It is very surprising to see Akron favored by double digits over anyone. Army may be winless but they have played very well in a few games and had chances to win in the final minute in games against Iowa State and Central Michigan. This is not a bad team but they just don’t know how to win yet. Akron should win at home in a close game against an out of conference opponent.
Buffalo (0-6, 0-3 MAC) @Toledo (5-1, 3-0 MAC) - 7 pm ET
Television: BCSN (Rob Powers, play-by-play; A.J. Sager, analyst; Brad Fanning, sideline).
Site: Toledo, Ohio -- Glass Bowl (26,248/NeXturf)
Series: Toledo leads 4-2 ... the Rockets have won the last three and the only one with each team as a MAC member - that game was played in 2003 with Toledo winning 56-29.
Coaches: UB-Jim Hofher (7-45, 5th season at UB; 51-81, 13th season); UT-Tom Amstutz (41-16, fifth season).
Game Notes:
- Toledo won last week at Ball State for just the second time in its last seven games in Muncie
- The Rockets have won 33 of their last 34 home games and 16 in a row at the Glass Bowl
- The Rockets defense has not allowed a first quarter touchdown this season
- UB is the top East Division team in scoring defense, allowing 26.2 ppg, and in total defense, giving up 357.2 ypg
- UB freshman Philip Warren ran for 92 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries in the 27-7 loss to Bowling Green
- UB has dropped 25 consecutive MAC road games
- Toledo blitzed Ball State with a 21-0 scoring spurt within 6 minute of the second quarter last week with Bruce Gradkowski tossing strikes to Steve Odom and Nick Moore while Trinity Dawson added a running TD
- UB held Falcons QB Omar Jacobs to nearly 150 yards under his season average last week thanks in part to Gemar Williams (1 INT & 2 passes broken up) and Jesse Imes (1 INT & 1 forced fumble)
- Buffalo is dead last in the MAC in put return average (3.7); scoring offense (6.3 ppg) and total offense (236 ypg)
- Toledo has given up the fewest QB sacks in the MAC this year (7) while Buffalo has given up the most (25)
- Toledo has yet to miss a FG (5 for 5)
Nick’s Pick: Toledo 35 - Buffalo 0
Line: Toledo by 31
Comment: Toledo got a nice and rare road win at Ball State and now returns to the friendly confines of the Glass Bowl where they rarely lose. Buffalo has certainly shown defensive improvements this season but still cannot score points under Jim Hofher. Toledo’s defense has shown the best turnaround in the league this season and if their spotty special teams play does not give up any TDs or long returns, UT should be able to pitch a shut out.
