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Nick's 2006 MAC Football Picks - Week #13 Picks

November 21 - Tuesday
*Bowling Green at Toledo, 7:00 - ESPN2

November 24 – Friday
*Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan, 11:00 a.m. - Comcast Local/CSN Chicago
*Ohio at Miami, noon - ESPNU
*Kent State at Ball State, noon
*Central Michigan at Buffalo, 1:00
*Western Michigan at Akron, 3:30 – ESPNU

East Division:
The Ohio Bobcats have secured the East Division's slot in the MAC Championship game Nov. 30 at Ford Field in Detroit vs. West Division foe Central Michigan. The Bobcats can win the division outright Saturday with a win at Miami or if Kent State losses at Ball State. Should OU and KSU end up tied as co-champions, Ohio has the tiebreaker via its 17-7 win at Kent State on Oct. 28. Kent State will finish with at least five MAC wins for the first time since 1987. KSU hasn’t had six conference victories since 1976. Ohio hasn’t won a MAC Championship since 1968.

West Division:
Central Michigan has clinched the West Division's slot in the Marathon MAC Championship game Nov. 30 at Ford Field in Detroit. The Chippewas will be after their first league title since 1994. CMU can win the divisional title outright with a win Saturday at Buffalo or a Western Michigan loss to Akron. Should CMU and WMU end up tied as divisional co-champions, the Chippewas hold the tiebreaker thanks to their 31-7 triumph over the Broncos on November 10. CMU hasn’t won as many as seven conference games since going 8-1 in 1994.

MAC Quick Notes

• Northern Illinois Garrett Wolfe (157.8 ypg) has wrapped up his third consecutive MAC rushing title. He joins Miami’s Travis Prentice (1997-99) and Western Michigan’s Jerome Persell (1976-78) in that select category. Wolfe will also become the first player in MAC history to lead the league three consecutive seasons in all-purpose yardage (179.5 ypg). With 4,972 yards, Wolfe can join Prentice (5,596) as the only players in MAC history to rush for 5,000 yards.
• Should Ball State (4-3) win its fifth conference game Saturday vs. Kent State, it would be the most by the Cardinals since going 7-1 in 1996.
• Northern Illinois needs a win at Eastern Michigan to extend its streak of six consecutive winning seasons to seven. NIU’s 6 consecutive winning seasons is the longest current in the MAC.
• A win by Ohio at Miami would give the Bobcats nine wins, the most by the program since a 10-1 campaign in 1968.
• Northern Illinois head coach Joe Novak has 45 wins in conference-only games, 11th all-time in MAC history and one win away from tying him with former Miami head coach Randy Walker (1990-98). In overall wins by a MAC head coach, Novak’s 59 triumphs ties him with Walker and is one win away from a ninth place tie with Paul Schudel (Ball State, 1985-94) and Gary Blackney (Bowling Green, 1991-00).

Looking Ahead:
The Marathon MAC Football Championship game will be staged at Ford Field in Detroit on Thursday, Nov. 30 at 7:30 p.m. ESPN will televise the league’s 10th championship as Central Michigan (designated visiting team) takes on Ohio (designated home team).

#4:
The preseason MAC poll had Ohio (East Division) and Central Michigan (West Division) both picked fourth. Last year’s MAC Champion, Akron, was tabbed as the preseason #3 tied with Kent State.

Tuesday, November 21

Bowling Green (4-7, 3-4) at Toledo (4-7, 2-5) - 7:00

Site: Glass Bowl (26,248/NeXturf) – Toledo, Ohio

Television: ESPN2

Series: BGSU leads 36-30-4 ... the Rockets have won the last two meetings overall and the last five meetings in the Glass Bowl ... in the last six meetings the teams have combined for an average of 73 points per game ... the series has been continuous since 1948.

Coaches: BGSU-Gregg Brandon (30-18, fourth season); UT-Tom Amstutz (49-25, sixth season).

Notes:
Toledo’s Tom Amstutz will be after his 50th career win ... this marks the first time since 1987 that both Toledo and Bowling Green will finish the season with a losing record ... Toledo’s 20-17 loss last Tuesday to Ball State snapped the Rockets second two-game winning streak of the season ... the Falcons have dropped four games in a row, most recent a 9-7 set back to Miami on Wednesday night ... BGSU’s last 8-loss season was in 2000 (2-9) while Toledo’s most recent 8-loss campaign was in 1978 (2-9) ... Bowling Green’s rushing average of 185.8 yards per game leads the MAC ... individually, Toledo’s Jalen Parmele ranks second in the MAC with his 91.5 yards per game, which includes a 92-yard TD dash in last week’s loss to Ball State ... Parmele’s run was the longest in the MAC since Central Michigan’s Jeremy Flowers ran for a 98-yard touchdown vs. Ball State Nov. 21, 1998 ... Parmele has three consecutive games of more than 100 yards rushing... WR Steve Odom has caught a reception in 48 straight games ... in 9 games, BGSU’s Anthony Turner has passed for 8 TDs and rushed for 5 scores ... Devon Park’s 8 sacks are tied for third in the MAC and give him 21 for his career.

Nick’s Pick: Toledo 27 – Bowling Green 20

Line: Toledo by 6

Comment: Both teams enter this intense rivalry game trying to salvage something positive from an otherwise disappointing season. The Falcons can run the ball very well while Toledo is more susceptible to the pass. The Rockets have yet to get any sort of rhythm offensively this year. Expect a close game and give the nod to the home team, especially since Gregg Brandon doesn’t seem to understand this rivalry quite as well as Tom Amstutz.

Friday, November 24th

Northern Illinois (6-5, 4-3) @ Eastern Michigan (1-10, 1-6) - 11:00 am

Site: Rynearson Stadium (30,200/field turf) – Ypsilanti, Mich.

Television: Comcast Local/CSN Chicago

Series: NIU leads 21-13-2 ... the Huskies have won the last five in a row and seven of the last eight ... NIU won last year’s game 24-8 ... EMU’s last win was in 2000 by a 39-32 score.

Coaches: NIU-Joe Novak (60-65, 10th season); EMU-Jeff Genyk (9-24, third season).

Notes:
The Huskies look to extend their streak of winning seasons to seven ... NIU handed Central Michigan its first conference loss of the season, beating the Chippewas 31-10 last week ... Huskie tailback Garrett Wolfe returned to form to rush for 203 yards and 3 touchdowns, snapping a streak of four consecutive games he had been held to 66 yards or less ... EMU dropped a 14-6 game at Kent State last week, giving the Eagles six losses this year by 8 points or less ... the Eagles QB situation remained unsettled between Tyler Jones (742 pass yards, 297 rush yards) and Andy Schmitt... Schmitt (1,182 pass yard, 461 rush yards) started last week at KSU but suffered a shoulder injury, thus giving way to Jones for this week’s game ... although DE Corey Riley returned an interception 78 yards last week, he did not get into the end zone, getting caught at the KSU 9-yard line ... WR Eric Deslauriers will close his career as one of the top receivers in MAC history as he has 242 receptions and 3,222 yards ... NIU has closed the its regular season road schedule with a win in each of the last two years and three of the last four seasons ... NIU is 2-1 in MAC road games this year, winning at Ball State and Miami ... a win by EMU would snap the Eagles’ four-game losing streak ... the Huskies top the MAC in total offense (378.3 ypg) and are a close second in scoring (27.0 ppg).

Nick’s Pick: NIU 28 – Eastern Michigan 16

Line: NIU by 7

Comment: NIU has slim hopes for a possible post season bowl bid and senior tailback Garrett Wolfe would love to go out in style this weekend at Eastern. The Eagles continue to lose close games and even though the program is much better under this coaching staff, wins have been few and far between. The Huskies will win by a comfortable margin.

Ohio (8-3, 6-1 MAC) at Miami (2-9, 2-5 MAC) - noon

Site: Yager Stadium (24,286/field turf) – Oxford, Ohio

Television: ESPNU

Series: Miami leads 51-29-2 ... the RedHawks have won the last six in a row and 11 of the last 12 meetings ... Miami captured last year’s game 38-7 ... Ohio’s last victory came in 1999 by a 40-28 score.

Coaches: OU-Frank Solich (12-10, second season at school, 70-29, eighth season overall); MIA-Shane Montgomery (9-13, second season).

Notes:
The Bobcats can clinch sole possession of an East Division championship with a win ...Miami hopes to avoid its first 10-loss season since 1988 (0-10-1) ... the RedHawks snapped a three-game losing streak with last week’s 9-7 win a Bowling Green ... seven of Miami’s 11 games this year have been decided by seven points or less ... Miami WR Ryne Robinson enters the game needing 85 punt return yards to break the NCAA record for career punt return yards ... he will also close out his career among the top MAC receivers of all-time as he has 250 receptions for 3,606 yards ... in last year’s 38-7 win over Ohio, Robinson had a TD on a punt return and via a reception ... Ohio tops the MAC in scoring defense, allowing only 15.5 ppg ... the Bobcats will also challenge the Miami passing game as OU is second in the league in pass defense efficiency and is the only MAC team holding opponents to less than 50.0 percent (49.2) in completion percentage ... the Bobcats have also allowed a league low of 14 sacks ... Miami has given up a league high 46 sacks ...the Bobcats’ Kalvin McRae has produced a school record six consecutive games with 100 yards rushing and is second in the league in rushing TDs with 12.

Nick’s Pick: Ohio 24 – Miami 17

Line: Ohio by 3

Comment: Miami dodged a bullet and actually won a close contest last week at BG. Ohio has already earned the right to play in the MAC Championship Game and have a chance to have the league’s best overall record. They will be receiving their first bowl bid since 1968 very soon and the Bobcats have the confidence and talent to get a rare win in Oxford – but the game will be close.

Kent State (6-5, 5-2 MAC) at Ball State (4-7, 4-3 MAC) - noon

Site: Scheumann Stadium (22,500/natural grass) – Muncie, Ind.

Television: None

Series: BSU leads 17-5 ... the most recent meeting came in 2003, a 34-17 Cardinals win ... BSU has won 12 of the last 13 encounters ... KSU’s last win came in 2001, 31-18.

Coaches: KSU-Doug Martin (12-21, third season); BSU-Brady Hoke (14-31, fourth season).

Notes:
Kent State has a chance to improve its league standings by six games after last year’s 0-8 MAC record ... KSU could also win seven games in a season for the first time since 1987 (7-4) ... Ball State could also tie for second place in the West with a win and a loss by Western Michigan ... in addition, the Cardinals could finish the season with two consecutive wins for the first time since 1997 ... the Golden Flashes stopped a three-game losing streak with a 14-6 triumph over Eastern Michigan last week ... Ball State surprised Toledo, winning in the Glass Bowl for the first time since 1991 ... BSU freshman Nate Davis is at the top of the MAC list and ranks 21st nationally in passing efficiency at 147.9 (134-of-216, 62.0 percent, 1,707 yards, 17 TDs, 7 int.) ... TE Darius Hill has tied the school record with 10 TD catches ... KSU first-year starter Julian Edelman has the most rushing yards (563) of any MAC QB and has also passed for 1,678 yards ... redshirt freshman Eugene Jarvis has contributed 80.9 ypg rushing, the sixth highest total in the MAC ... Danny Muir’s interception return for a five-yard touchdown bolstered KSU’s lead to 14-0 in last week’s win over EMU ... Muir is a four-year starter on KSU’s defensive line.

Nick’s Pick: Ball State 28 – Kent State 14

Line: Ball State by 3.5

Comment: Just like last season, Ball State is peaking late in the year. QB Nate Davis is been terrific and the Cardinals have a lot of perimeter speed. Kent State seems content on not having a losing season and there is little to no interest in the Golden Flashes for any sort of postseason play. Ball State will have two quality MAC wins to end the season.

Central Michigan (7-4, 6-1) at Buffalo (2-9, 1-6) - 1:00

Site: UB Stadium (29,013/Sportexe Momentum) – Buffalo, NY

Television: None

Series: CMU leads 2-1 ... the Bulls won the most recent meeting in 2004 by a 36-6 score ... CMU’s triumphs came in 1999 (38-19) and 2001 (16-8).

Coaches: CMU-Brian Kelly (17-16, third season at school; 135-51-2, 16th season overall); UB-Turner Gill (2-9, first season).

Notes:
The Chippewas look to get back on the winning track after last week’s 31-10 loss at Northern Illinois, which was their first conference loss of 2006 ... a Buffalo win would give the Bulls three victories in a season, the most since a 3-8 slate in 2001 ... CMU’s Dan LeFevour has thrown 19 touchdown passes this season, second-most all-time in a season at CMU and the most in the MAC this season ...LeFevour’s top target is another freshman – Bryan Anderson (58 rec., 716 yards, 3 TDs) ... Damien Linson eclipsed the 2,000 yards receiving mark (2,030) and also has 144 career receptions ... CMU is now 3-3 in road games in 2006 and the Chippewas need a win at Buffalo to finish above .500 on the road in consecutive years for the first time since 1989-90 .... both of the Bulls’ wins have come at home (Temple, Kent State) ... UB’s Trevor Scott is tied for third in the MAC with eight sacks and Kareem Byrom’s school-record tying four forced fumbles is also tied for second ... Scott also blocked a field goal attempt at Wisconsin last week ... Mike Newton’s five interceptions are tied for the league lead and Jesses Imes is tied for the most fumbles recovered with four ... the Bulls’ defense will be tested by the league’s top scoring offense (27.2 ppg) and second leading passing offense (238.3 ypg, 20 TDs).

Nick’s Pick: Central Michigan 35 – Buffalo 13

Line: Central Michigan by 17

Comment: Central learned the hard way last week in DeKalb to bring your “A” game every week in MAC play or else. They end the season in Buffalo against an improved UB squad – but the ‘Chips have much more firepower. Expect a close game for three quarters before Coach Kelly fires up the troops and a fine 8-4 season.

Western Michigan (7-4, 5-2) at Akron (5-6, 3-4) - 3:30

Site: Rubber Bowl (31,000/astroplay) – Akron, Ohio

Television: ESPNU

Series: WMU leads 10-3 ... the Broncos have won the last two in a row, most recently a 31-14 victory in 2001 ... WMU has also captured nine of the last 10 meetings.

Coaches: WMU-Bill Cubit (14-8, second season at school; 48-26-1, eighth season overall); UA-J.D. Brookhart (18-17, third season).

Notes:
The Broncos need a win and a loss by CMU to become West Division co-champions ... the Zips are fighting to become bowl eligible and need one win to reach that status ... the Broncos have lost two in a row for the first time this season after last week’s 28-20 defeat by Florida State ... Akron’s 17-7 loss to Ohio snapped the Zips’ season-long two-game winning streak ... WMU’s Mark Bonds rushed for 41 yards at FSU to give him 1,007 for the season, just one of three MAC players to reach 1,000 yards thus far ... a win by WMU would surpass last year’s victory total (7-4) and give the program 8 wins in a season for the first time since 2000 (9-3) ... the Zips need to reach .500 to avoid their first losing season since 2002 (4-8) ... Akron QB Luke Getsy has claimed the league’s top spot in passing yards per game with 230.0 and is second in TD passes with 18 ... WMU signal caller Ryan Cubit has the league’s top completion percentage at 62.8 percent (184-of-293) ... WMU is the MAC leader in turnover margin at +10 with Londen Fryar leading the way with a league high 5 interceptions ... Akron’s balance offense feature Dennis Kennedy, who needs 108 rushing yards to reach 1,000 on the season ... the Zips’ David Harvey ranks second in the MAC in all-purpose yards (124.9 ypg) with 82.4 ypg coming as a wide receiver.

Nick’s Pick: Western Michigan 23 – Akron 13

Line: Akron by 2