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Nick's 2006 MAC Football Picks - Week #11 Picks

This Week’s Schedule

November 7 - Tuesday

*Toledo at Northern Illinois, 6:30 (CT)/7:30 (ET) - ESPN2

November 9 - Thursday

*Buffalo at Akron, 6:00 - ESPNU

November 10 - Friday

*Western Michigan at Central Michigan, 7:00 - Comcast Local

November 11 - Saturday

Navy at Eastern Michigan (at Ford Field), 1:00 - Comcast Local

Kent State at No.20/No. 21 Virginia Tech, 3:30 - ESPNU

Idle - Ball State, Bowling Green, Miami & Ohio U.

East Division:
Ohio (5-1 MAC) took a one-game lead over Kent State (4-2) via the Bobcats 16-10 win at Eastern Michigan and the Golden Flashes surprising 41-14 loss at Buffalo. The Bobcats are idle until hosting Akron on Nov. 16 and can clinch the East Division berth in the MAC Championship game with a win over the Zips. Bowling Green (3-3) dropped a 35-28 contest at Akron (2-3) to fall two games off the pace.

West Division:
Friday, Nov. 10, will be a showdown for first place in the West Division with front runner Central Michigan (5-0) hosting Western Michigan (5-1). A win by the Chippewas and a Northern Illinois loss to Toledo on Tuesday (Nov. 7) would vault the Chippewas into the MAC Championship game on Nov. 30.

Looking Ahead:
Next week will be another staggered schedule with games on five different days of the week. First up is Tuesday’s game (Nov. 14) with Ball State at Toledo. Wednesday, (Nov. 15) has Miami at Bowling Green. Thursday (Nov. 16) features Akron at Ohio on ESPNU with the Bobcats having a chance to clinch the East Division. Two games are on Friday (Nov. 17) with Eastern Michigan at Kent State and Central Michigan at Northern Illinois. Three non-conference contests take place on Saturday (Nov. 18) with Western Michigan at Florida State, Buffalo at Wisconsin and Temple at Navy.

Stop It:
Buffalo stopped its seven-game losing streak with the Bulls’ 41-14 win over Kent State. Buffalo’s Turner Gill won his first conference games as a head coach with the Bulls 41-14 win over Kent State. The Bulls also snapped a seven-game losing streak in the process.

Big Scare in the Big House:
Ball State nearly stunned No. 2 Michigan and turned the bowl world upside down Saturday. The Cardinals fought back from a 31-12 second half deficit before falling 34-26 to the Wolverines. Dante Love grabbed 6 passes for 107 yards and a 54-yard touchdown and freshman QB Nate Davis completed 18-34 pass attempts for 250 yards and a touchdown in front of 109,359 at Michigan Stadium. Erik Keyes made the highlights also with a 29-yard interception return for a score.

Cats on the Run:
One more win this season would give Ohio 8 wins in a season for the first time since 1997 (8-3). Ohio’s Kalvin McRae has five consecutive games with 100-plus rushing yards. McRae’s 6 games with 100-plus rushing yards this season ties Northern Illinois Garrett Wolfe for the most in the MAC.

Closing In On A Record:
Western Michigan’s Ameer Ismail had one sack in Saturday’s game versus Miami, giving him 15 for the year. Ismail is one sack shy of tying the MAC record held by Dan Bazuin (Central Michigan, 2005) and Jonathan Goddard (Marshall, 2004).

Record Chasers:
Eastern Michigan PK Andrew Wellock has 67 career field goals, just seven shy of the MAC all-time mark of 73 held by Northern Illinois’ Steve Azar (2000-03). Miami WR Ryne Robinson is 80 receiving yards shy of reaching 3,600 for his career, which would put him into third place all-time behind Marshall’s Darius Watts (4,031 yards, 2000-03) and Josh Davis (3,889 yards, 2001-04). Eastern Michigan WR Eric Deslauriers has 232 career receptions, tied for seventh all-time in MAC history. Northern Illinois’ head coach Joe Novak has 58 wins overall as a MAC head coach, tying him with Bill Doolittle (WMU, 1964-74) for 12th place all-time and a win away from tying Randy Walker (Miami, 1990-98).

Eagles Honored:
Two Eastern Michigan players have made the semifinal lists for post-season awards. Senior place-kicker Andrew Wellock is one of the 20 finalists for the Lou Groza Award while redshirt freshman punter Zach Johnson is one of the 10 semifinalists for the Ray Guy Award as the nation’s top punter.

Tuesday, November 6

Toledo (3-6, 1-4) at Northern Illinois (5-4, 3-2) - 6:30 pm CT

Site: Brigham Field at Huskie Stadium (28,000/field turf) – DeKalb, Ill.

Television: ESPN2 (John Saunders, play-by-play; Doug Flutie and Craig James, analysts; Vince Welsch, sidelines).

Series: UT leads 26-7 ... the Huskies’ 35-17 win last year at the Glass Bowl in Toledo snapped an 11-game losing streak to the Rockets ... UT has won the last five meetings at Huskie Stadium.

Coaches: UT-Tom Amstutz (48-24, sixth season); NIU-Joe Novak (59-64, 11th season).

Notes:
The Huskies, who have lost two of their last three games, need a win to stay in contention for the West Division ... NIU last played Oct. 28 in a 24-14 loss at Iowa, a layoff of eight days ... the Rockets also last played on Oct. 28 in a 35-20 win over Akron that snapped a Toledo four-game losing streak ... Toledo needs to win its last three games (NIU, Ball State, Bowling Green) to avoid its first losing season since 1993 (4-7) ... NIU’s Garrett Wolfe, who leads the nation in rushing with 164 ypg, has totaled just 136 yards the last three games ... this game features the league’s No. 2 rated scoring offense with NIU’s 28.1 ppg up against the MAC’s No. 11 rated scoring defense with Toledo allowing 30.9 ppg.

Nick’s Pick: NIU 37 – Toledo 24

Line: NIU by 11

Comment: The Rockets got a much needed win nearly two weeks ago against Akron while NIU lost a tough game at Iowa. The Huskies have more at stake here since they have a shot at gaining a 4 th bowl birth for the MAC should the opportunity arise. Toledo is still going through growing pains and has yet to win a road game this year. Look for NIU to beat their former nemesis for the second straight season.

Nov. 9 - Thursday

Buffalo (2-7, 1-5 MAC) at Akron (4-5, 2-3 MAC) - 6:00 pm

Site: Rubber Bowl (31,000/astroplay) – Akron, Ohio

Television: ESPNU (Mike Gleason, play-by-play; David Diaz-Infante, analyst).

Series: UA leads 7-0 ... the series began in 1999 when the Bulls joined the MAC ... last year’s game was a 13-7 Zips win at Buffalo.

Coaches: UB-Turner Gill (2-7, first season); UA-J.D. Brookhart (17-16, third season).

Notes:
The Bulls snapped a seven-game losing streak and captured their first conference win of the season with last week’s 41-14 triumph over Kent State ... the Zips won their fifth consecutive home game dating back to last year with Saturday’s 35-28 victory over Bowling Green ... both teams were sparked by its ground games ... UB received a career-high 162 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns from redshirt freshman James Starks ... Starks had averaged just 52 ypg prior to Saturday’s performance ... UA had sophomore Dennis Kennedy rush for a career-best 178 yards and 2 TDs, including 150 yards on 15 carries in the second half as the Zips battled from a 21-14 deficit for the win ... Kennedy’s 94.4 ypg ranks 22nd nationally and third in the MAC ... Buffalo’s 41 points were its most this year and highest production since beating UCF 48-20 Oct. 2, 2004.

Nick’s Pick: Akron 31 – Buffalo 16

Line: Akron by 17

Comment: Buffalo had an impressive win over Kent State last week while Akron rebounded from a loss at Toledo to beat BGSU. The Zips have never lost to UB even though there have been some close games through the years. At this point in time, Akron has more talent – give the nod to the Zips at home.

Nov. 10 - Friday

WMU (7-2, 5-1 MAC) at CMU (6-3, 5-0 MAC), 7:00 pm

Site: Kelly/Shorts Stadium (30,199/field turf) – Mount Pleasant, Mich.

Television: Comcast (Ben Holden, play-by-play; Ty Hallock, analyst)

Series: WMU leads 43-32-2 ... the home team has won the last three meetings ... the Broncos captured last year’s game 31-24 ... CMU’s last win came in 2004 by a 24-21 score ... the series began in 1907 and has been continuous since 1973.

Coaches: WMU-Bill Cubit (14-6, second season at school; 48-19-1, eighth season overall); CMU-Brian Kelly (16-15, third season at school; 134-50-2, 16th season overall).

Notes:
This is the 77th meeting in the series and first place in the division is at stake ... CMU last won a MAC Championship in 1994 ... WMU’s most recent league title came in 1988, although the program won West Division flags in 1999 and 2000 ... the Chippewas have won four games in a row since a 45-36 loss at Kentucky Sept. 30 ... the Broncos have walked off the field victorious in their last four games also, last dropping a game Oct. 7 at Oho 27-20 ... the QBs are ranked among the best in the MAC ... CMU redshirt freshman Dan LeFevour is No.2 in pass efficiency at 143.8, completing 153-247 attempts (61.9 pct.) for 1,881 yards, 17 TDs and 6 int ... WMU senior Ryan Cubit is No. 3 in pass efficiency at 130.8, completing 145-211 attempts (65.5 pct.) for 1,449 yards, 11 TDs and 7 int ... CMU is the league leader in scoring offense (28.7 ppg) and will be matched against the WMU defense, the No. 2 rated MAC team in scoring defense (19.2 ppg allowed).

Nick’s Pick: Central 30 – Western 27 (2 OTs)

Line: Central by 6

Comment: This is the MAC ‘game of the year folks.’ Sure there have been some very good games to date but these are the two best teams in the league this year. Western has a solid defense and the knack to win close games. Central continues to improve every week and both programs feature extremely talented coaching staffs. Give the nod to the home team in one of the MAC’s most intense rivalries. Has there every been more at stake for these two programs in this contest over the years? Probably not - since there is a divisional title and immediate bowl bid on the line.

Nov. 11 - Saturday

Navy (6-3, Independent) at Eastern Michigan (1-8, 1-5 MAC) - 1:00 (upset special!)

Site: Ford Field (65,000/field turf) – Detroit, Mich.

Television: Comcast Local Comcast (Ben Holden, play-by-play; Ty Hallock, analyst; Clarence Black, sidelines).

Series: Navy leads 1-0 ... the Midshipmen won 39-7 in 2003.

Coaches: Navy-Paul Johnson (34-24, fifth season at school); EMU-Jeff Genyk (9-22, third season).

Notes:
This is the third year in a row EMU will host a game at Ford Field ... in 2004 EMU outlasted Central Michigan 61-58 in four overtimes and in 2005 lost a 44-36 shootout to Western Michigan ... Navy is coming off a 38-13 win over Duke ... two of the Midshipmen’s losses are to ranked teams (Notre Dame and Rutgers) ... the Eagles suffered another close loss last week, 16-10 to MAC East Division leader Ohio ... EMU has five losses by 8 points or less and has played four games in a row decided by 6 points or less ... Eagles’ PK Andrew Wellock needs six field goals to tie the all-time MAC record of 73 ... the EMU defense will be facing the nation’s leader in rushing yards per game as Navy is averaging 324.7 ypg on the ground ... WR Eric Deslauriers need six receptions to move into the top five in MAC history.

Nick’s Pick: Eastern Michigan 24 – Navy 21

Line: Navy by 13

Comment: This pick is nothing more than a hunch. At some point, the Eagles have to get lucky and win a close game and why not against a solid team like Navy. Navy is well on their way to a fourth straight bowl birth and has Army coming up in three weeks. Is Navy really going to be taking Eastern very seriously? It’s a gut feeling – I’m picking EMU.

Kent State (5-4, 4-2 MAC) at Virginia Tech (7-2, 4-2 ACC) - 1:30

Site: Lane Stadium/Worsham Field (66,233/grass) – Blacksburg, Va.

Television: ESPNU

Series: Tied 1-1 ... the Hokies won the most recent meeting in 1976, 42-14 ... KSU’s victory came in 1975 in Kent, 17-11.

Coaches: KSU-Doug Martin (11-20); VT-Frank Beamer (153-81-2, 21st season at school; 195-104-4, 27th season overall).

Notes:
The Golden Flashes have stumbled the last two games since a 4-0 start to conference play and are coming off a 41-14 drubbing at Buffalo ... the Hokies have won three in a row, the most recent a 17-10 decision over Miami (Fla.) ... the Golden Flashes, averaging 178 rushing yards per game, are coming off a season low 103 rush yards at Buffalo ... in addition, the 41 points allowed snapped a string of seven consecutive games the KSU defense allowed 17 points or less ... VT RB Brandon Ore has already reached the 1,000-yard plateau (1,018) and has 13 rushing TDs ... the Hokies are 5-1 at home this season with their only loss to a ranked Georgia Tech squad.

Nick’s Pick: V-Tech 42 – Kent State 10

Line: V-Tech by 28

Comment: Two weeks ago I would have predicted this game to be much closer but the Golden Flashes have been anything but ‘golden’ over the past two weeks. Turnovers and penalties have killed KSU against Ohio and Buffalo and now they are facing an extremely talented Hokie program. KSU has the talent to make this game but football is about momentum and confidence and right now Virginia Tech is light-years ahead of Kent State in those categories. V-Tech should romp.