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Nick's 2006 MAC Football Picks - Week #10 Picks

This Week’s Schedule - November 4, Saturday

Ball State at No. 2 Michigan, Noon - ESPNU

*Kent State at Buffalo, 1:00 - All MACcess

*Ohio at Eastern Michigan, 1:00 - All MACcess

*Bowling Green at Akron, 1:00 - All MACcess

Central Michigan at Temple, 1:00 - All MACcess

*Miami at Western Michigan, 3:30, Comcast Local/All MACcess

idle - Northern Illinois, Toledo

all times local to playing site

MAC WEST DIVISION
Central Michigan was idle last week and plays a non-conference game at Temple Saturday. The 5-0 Chippewas are back in league play on Friday, Nov. 10 by hosting rival Western Michigan. The 4-1 Broncos play their final home game of 2006 this week versus Miami before what may be key game for the division title at CMU. Northern Illinois (3-2) has two MAC losses and will need help to return to the league championship game. NIU has home games with Toledo and Central Michigan and a road contest at Eastern Michigan to finish out the season.

MAC EAST DIVISION
Ohio beat Kent State 17-7 Saturday to tie the Golden Flashes for first place as both have 4-1 records. Bowling Green remains a game behind at 3-2. By holding the tiebreaker via its win over KSU, Ohio controls its own destiny with remaining games at Eastern Michigan, at home vs. Akron and at Miami. KSU has four games and three conference games left, starting this week at Buffalo, followed by at Virginia Tech, home vs. Eastern Michigan and at Ball State. BGSU holds the tiebreaker over Ohio and has remaining games at Akron, home vs. Miami and at Toledo. All other East Division teams have at least three conference losses.

Looking Ahead:
Next week will be a staggered schedule with games on four different days of the week. The action starts on Tuesday (Nov. 7) with Toledo at Northern Illinois at 7:30 (ET)/6:30 (CT) with an ESPN2 audience. Thursday the Buffalo at Akron contest will be televised on ESPNU at 6 p.m. On Friday (Nov. 10) at 7 p.m. there will be a West Division showdown between Western Michigan and Central Michigan. Saturday (Nov. 10) contests feature three non-conference outings with Navy vs. Eastern Michigan at Ford Field, Kent State at Virginia Tech and Temple at Penn State.

Stop It:
Temple (future MAC member is 2007) snapped its 20-game losing streak with a 28-14 win over Bowling Green. Toledo ended a four-game losing streak and won its first MAC game of the year with a 35-20 decision over Akron.

Idle This Week:
Northern Illinois and Toledo are idle Saturday as the two teams prepare for their meeting on Tuesday, November 7 in DeKalb.

Fresh Faces:
While seven former MAC quarterbacks dot NFL rosters, four league teams currently have freshman starters at QB and all four squads are in the West Division. Central Michigan’s Dan LeFevour has helped the Chippewas to a 5-0 MAC record. Ball State frosh Nate Davis leads the MAC in passing efficiency and completion percentage. Eastern Michigan’s Andy Schmitt and Toledo’s Andy Opelt have also been thrust into a starting role.

Sack Man:
Western Michigan linebacker Ameer Ismail tied an NCAA record with six sacks in the Oct. 21 win over Ball State. Ismail joins Louisville’s Elvis Dumervil, who had six sacks versus Kentucky in 2005. Ismail followed that performance with three more sacks Saturday vs. Eastern Michigan. Ismail joins several other MAC defenders listed in the NCAA record book. Those are as follows:

Two Other #1’s:
In addition to Wolfe, two other MAC players are national leaders. On the other side of the ball, Western Michigan linebacker Ameer Ismail is the leader with 2.63 tackles for a loss per game and also in sacks per game with 1.75. Ohio freshman Chris Garrett also leads the nation in punt returns at 20.3 ypr.

Taking Notice:
Ball State’s Darius Hill was recognized by Stewart Mandel in last week’s Sports Illustrated. Mandel listed Ball State’s Darius Hill as the “Best Player You’ve Never Heard Of” in his Two-Minute Drill - Sizing up the first half of the 2006 season. Mandel wrote, “Ball State sophomore Darius Hill leads all tight ends nationally in receiving with 551 yards and eight touchdowns.”

Ball State (3-6, 3-3 MAC) at #2 Michigan (9-0, 6-0 Big Ten) - 12 pm

Site: Michigan Stadium (107,501/field turf) – Ann Arbor, Mich.

Television: ESPNU

Series: first meeting

Coaches: BSU-Brady Hoke (13-30, fourth season); UM-Lloyd Carr (102-34, 12th season).

Notes:
The Cardinals are 0-3 in non-conference games this year going into the game at No. 2 Michigan ... BSU head coach Brady Hoke was an assistant at UM from 1995-2002 before being named head coach at BSU ... the Cardinals have won two of their last four games, including a 20-17 win at Miami last week ... the Wolverines continued their perfect season with a 17-3 home win over Northwestern ... UM defeated Central Michigan 41-17 on Sept. 9 ... this will be the highest ranked opponent BSU has ever played and will also be the largest crowd the any BSU team has played in front of with the previous record 85,095 at Florida in 2000 ... the Cardinals lead the MAC in passing yards per game (264.7) and have set a school record with 23 passing TDs ... Michigan leads the Big Ten and ranks third nationally in total defense, allowing 253.3 ypg.

Nick’s Pick: Michigan 45 – Ball State 7

Line: Michigan by 34

Comment: Michigan has dominated the MAC every season they play one of our conference teams, regardless if is a top team or bottom-feeder. Plain and simple – this is a money game for the Cardinals and the only way the score looks respectable is if Coach Lloyd Carr shows mercy to one of his former assistance coaches, Brady Hoke.

Kent State (5-3, 4-1) at Buffalo (1-7, 0-5) - 1 pm

Site: UB Stadium (29,013/Sportexe Momentum) – Buffalo, N.Y.

Television: None

Series: KSU leads 8-6 ... since UB joined the MAC, KSU holds a 5-2 series advantage ... UB won last year’s game 10-6 for the Bulls’ lone win of 2005.

Coaches: KSU-Doug Martin (11-19, third season); UB-Turner Gill (1-7, first season)

Notes:
Kent State had its five-game winning streak stopped in Saturday’s 17-7 loss to Ohio ... the Bulls have dropped seven straight since a season-opening win over Temple ... last week the Bulls lost at No. 17 Boston College 41-0 ... KSU has not allowed more than 17 points in a game in the last seven games but has lost two of those (Army, Ohio) ... the Golden Flashes 17.6 ppg allowed is the second best in the MAC ... Buffalo is averaging 16.5 ppg (11th in the MAC) and has scored 13 or fewer points in 5 of its 8 games ... at home, however, UB is averaging nearly 22 ppg ... KSU is the only MAC team with two rushers ranked in the top 10 individual league leaders with Eugene Jarvis at 75.4 ypg and Julian Edelman at 67.4 ypg, placing seventh and eighth, respectively, in the MAC.

Nick’s Pick: Kent State 27 – Buffalo 10

Line: Kent State by 14

Comment: After last week’s setback the Golden Flashes are still within a game of winning the division and the opportunity to go to their first bowl since 1972 is right in front of them. Look for Coach Doug Martin to have his troops ready to go and to continue their fine season at UB. Also, look for the Bulls to play their first "good" game in several weeks.

Ohio (6-3, 4-1) at Eastern Michigan (1-7, 1-4) - 1 pm

Site: Rynearson Stadium (30,200/field turf) – Ypsilanti, Mich.

Television: None

Series: Ohio leads 13-11-1 ... this is the schools first meeting since a 2002, 55-27, Bobcat victory ... Ohio has won 4 of the last 5 meetings ... EMU’s most recent victory came in 1999, 27-26 in Ypsilanti.

Coaches: OU-Frank Solich (10-10, second season at school; 68-29, ninth season overall); EMU-Jeff Genyk (9-21, third season).

Notes:
Ohio is the only team in the MAC East that controls its own destiny and can win the division with three consecutive wins to close the season ... in the 17-7 win at Kent State, the Bobcats extended their winning streak to four and Kalvin McRae also had his fourth consecutive game with 100-plus rushing yards ... McRae’s 10 rushing TDs are the second highest total in the MAC behind Garrett Wolfe’s 13 ... Ohio’s four consecutive wins are the first such since the 1997 season ... last week’s win was keyed defensively by freshman Ernie Hodge, who had four tackles for loss among his eight tackles ... EMU’s last three games have been decided by a total of 10 points (L 21-24 at Bowling Green; W 17-13 vs. Toledo; L 15-18 at Western Michigan) ... the Eagles’ last four conference games have been decided by seven points or less with one overtime contest (L 17-24 vs. Central Michigan) ... Andrew Wellock produced three field goals last week at Western Michigan to boost his career total to 66 and just seven shy of tying the MAC record.

Nick’s Pick: Ohio 21 – Eastern Michigan 19

Line: Ohio by 6

Comment: For two straight seasons the Eagles have been the hard luck team of the MAC. EMU could have and should have been 7-4 last season, and once again EMU has let at least three games get away in the 4th quarter that they easily could have won. Ohio is riding high right now to win the East division, but just when you think the Bobcats will finally get over the hump and become a dominant team in the league, they end up struggling against a bottom level team. Look for this contest to be a dog-fight with Ohio winning ugly and EMU losing another heartbreaker.

Bowling Green (4-5, 3-2) at Akron (3-5, 1-3) - 1 pm

Site: Rubber Bowl (31,000/astro play) – Akron, Ohio

Television: None.

Series: BGSU leads 8-6 ... the Zips have won 3 of the last 4 meetings, including last year’s game 24-14 ... the Falcons’ last win came in 2001, 16-11.

Coaches: BGSU-Gregg Brandon (30-16, fourth season); UA-J.D. Brookhart (16-16, third season).

Notes:
Both teams lost last week, the Falcons 28-14 at Temple and the Zips 35-20 at Toledo ... the Falcons have dropped two in a row but remain with an outside chance at winning the East Division, standing just a game behind co-leaders Ohio and Kent State ... Falcon RB Chris Bullock rushed for a career-high 182 yards last week at Temple ... Bullock has rushed for 558 yards in the last five games (111.6 ypg average) ... Bullock’s 84.9 ypg ranks as the third best total in the MAC and is the best among all freshman ... for Akron, which has played only two home games, this represents the start of a stretch of three of four games at home ... the Zips need to win their remaining four games if they want to keep alive their current streak of three consecutive winning seasons ... Dennis Kennedy rushed for 119 yards at Toledo, giving him back-to-back 100 yard plus games (129 vs. Miami) ... Kennedy has three 100 yard plus games this season (117 at N.C. State) ... Kennedy’s 82.4 ypg is the fourth best total in the MAC ... WR David Harvey’s 22.2 ypc is the best among the MAC receiving leaders.

Nick’s Pick: Akron 28 – BGSU 17

Line: Akron by 9

Comment: At the beginning of the season this game looked to be a major contest to determine who would win the East division. Both teams have been a disappointment this year with Akron’s conference record being a real surprise. Since both teams are now playing for pride, give the nod to the home team since they have more experience. After last week’s loss at Temple Coach Brandon provided a lot of excuses for that setback but few answers.

Central Michigan (5-3, 5-0) at Temple (1-8) - 1 pm

Site: Lincoln Financial Field (68,532/grass) – Philadelphia, Pa.

Television: None

Series: First meeting

Coaches: CMU-Brian Kelly (15-15, third season at school; 133-50-2, 16th season overall); TU-Al Golden (1-8, first season).

Notes:
Temple snapped its 20-game losing streak with a 28-14 win over Bowling Green for the program’s first win under first-year head coach Al Golden ... the Owls were sparked to victory by Travis Shelton, who scored on a 43-yard reception and a 96-yard kickoff return ... Shelton’s first score tied the game at 7-7 and his kickoff return came after the Falcons had closed to within 21-14 early in the fourth quarter ... the Owls won the game despite running just 41 offensive plays to BGSU’s 82 plays ...the Chippewas were idle last week and last played Oct. 19 with a 31-14 win over Bowling Green ... CMU redshirt freshman QB Dan LeFevour is second in the MAC in pass efficiency at 134.8 (135-of-225 for 1,613 yards, 13 TDs, 5 int.) and fellow redshirt frosh WR Bryan Anderson ranks third in receptions per game (5.6) with 45 receptions for 593 yards and 3 TDs ... the CMU defense can boast of the league’s leader in tackles as Red Keith has 84 stops (40 solo, 44 assists) ... Keith, a junior who also led the Chippewas in tackles as a freshman and sophomore, is 17 tackles shy of 300 for his career.

Nick’s Pick: Central Michigan 34 – Temple 17

Line: Central by 19

Comment: Temple is on ‘Cloud-9” right now after their first win in over two seasons against future MAC East rival Bowling Green. Central was idle last week and has had two weeks to prepare for this game. Look for the ‘Chips to be a little rusty at first and then pull away from the Owls in the second half.

Miami (1-8, 1-4) at Western Michigan (6-2, 4-1) - 3:30 pm

Site: Waldo Stadium (30,200/field turf) – Kalamazoo, Mich.

Television: None

Series: Miami leads 37-16-1 ... the RedHawks have won the last two and the most recent meeting in 2004, 42-21 ... the Broncos last win over Miami came in 1994, 28-25.

Coaches: Miami-Shane Montgomery (8-12, second season); WMU-Bill Cubit (13-6, second season at school; 47-24-1, seventh season overall).

Notes:
Miami suffered its fourth close loss of the season last week, 20-17 versus Ball State ... the RedHawks have two 3-point losses, one 1-point loss and an overtime loss ... the Broncos came back from a 15-3 fourth-quarter deficit for an 18-15 win at Eastern Michigan last week ... for WMU it marked the team’s third consecutive win ... a win versus Miami would match last year’s four-game winning streak and also equal last year’s win total of seven ... Broncos’ QB Ryan Cubit ranks third in the MAC in passing efficiency at 132.4 (122-of-186, 65.6 percent, 1,244 yards, 9 TDs and 5 int. in just six games) ... last week junior Mark Bonds (18-97) and true frosh Brandon West (10-87) combined to rush 28 times for 184 yards ... Bonds’ 98.9 ypg is the second highest average in the MAC ... Miami QB Mike Kokal tops all MAC QBs in passing average with his 228.4 ypg ... WR Ryne Robinson leads the MAC in receptions (64), receiving yards (821) and TD receptions (tied with 6) ... the RedHawks’ offense will have to contend with Ameer Ismail, who leads the league in sacks (14) and tackles for a loss (20).

Nick’s Pick: Western Michigan 33 – Miami 21

Line: Western by 10.5