2006 Mid-American Conference Football Picks

MAC West Division:
Central Michigan’s 31-14 win over Bowling Green gives the Chippewas a 5-0 MAC record for the first time since 1990. The only West team with just one loss is Western Michigan (3-1), which hosts Eastern Michigan Saturday. Should the Broncos win versus EMU and the following week versus Miami (also at home), that could set up a Nov. 10 WMU at CMU encounter for first place. Northern Illinois (3-2) is still in the chase but must win out in its three remaining conference games (Toledo, CMU, EMU) after this weeks game @ Iowa.

MAC East Division:
Kent State (4-0), idle last week, faces its most serious remaining challenger this week when the Golden Flashes host Ohio (3-1). A KSU win Saturday gives the Flashes a two-game lead over the field; a Bobcat victory will vault Ohio into a first-place tie with three remaining conference games. Bowling Green and Akron each have two league losses with at least a third to come for one of the teams when they meet Nov. 4 at Akron.

Looking Ahead:
Four conference games are on tap November 4 with two key East Division matchups featuring Kent State at Buffalo and Bowling Green at Akron. Cross-division encounters have Ohio at Eastern Michigan and Miami at Western Michigan. In non-conference games, Central Michigan is at future MAC member Temple and Ball State is at No. 2 ranked Michigan.

Stop It:
Eastern Michigan shunned its six-game losing streak last week in its 17-13 win over Toledo. It also marked EMU’s first win of the season.

Idle This Week:
Central Michigan is the lone team with an open week Saturday. The Chippewas return to action Nov. 4 at Temple. The Chippewas are 5-0 in league play for the first time since 1990 and play their next conference game Nov. 10 (Friday) versus Western Michigan.

Sack Man:
Western Michigan linebacker Ameer Ismail tied an NCAA record with six sacks in Saturday’s win over Ball State. Ismail joins Louisville’s Elvis Dumervil, who had six sacks versus Kentucky in 2005. Ismail joins several other MAC defenders listed in the NCAA record book.

Northern Illinois (5-3, 3-2) at Iowa (5-3, 2-3 Big Ten) - 11 am CT

Series: Iowa leads 5-0 ... the most recent meeting was in 1999, a 24-0 Hawkeye victory.

Coaches: NIU-Joe Novak (59-63, 11th season); Iowa-Kirk Ferentz (54-39, eighth season at school; 66-60, 10th season overall).

Notes:
Iowa started the season 4-0 but has lost three of the last four games, with two of those losses to Ohio State and Michigan ... the Hawkeye’s have suffered back-to-back losses to Indiana and Michigan ... the Huskies have won five of their last six and are coming off a 43-21 win at home over Temple ... Iowa is unranked but has been ranked as high as No. 13 this season ... this is NIU’s second Big Ten opponent as they opened the season with a 35-13 loss at No. 1 Ohio State ... NIU’s Chris Nendick set a school record with 19 points by kicking versus Temple, also tying for the second most in a single game in MAC history ... Garrett Wolfe leads the nation in rushing at 176 ypg ... Phil Horvath passed for 253 yards and two TDs last week ... the Hawkeyes are minus-6 in the turnover department as compared to the Huskies plus-5 ... these teams will meet Sept. 1, 2007, at Soldier Field in Chicago.

Comment: If NIU is to have any chance in this contest then Garrett Wolfe needs to get back to his normal production. Wolfe tends to play "big" in big games and when the nation’s spotlight is on him so don’t be surprised if he returns to form. Iowa lost at Michigan last week but is still playing to get a premium bowl bid. NIU will hang tough but Iowa will win by double digits.

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Bowling Green (4-4, 3-2) at Temple (0-8) - 1 pm

Series: BGSU leads 6-2 ... the Falcons have won the last three meetings, including a 70-7 contest last year at Bowling Green ... the Owls win in the series came in 2000 in a 31-14 contest.

Coaches: BGSU-Gregg Brandon (30-15, fourth season); TU-Al Golden (0-8, first season).

Notes:
Three times this year the Falcons have followed a loss with a win ... BG last played Thursday, Oct. 19, in a 31-14 loss at Central Michigan ... Temple dropped a 43-21 game at Northern Illinois ... the Owls are coming off their best offensive effort of the year ... WR Travis Shelton caught seven passes for 204 yards in just his second game of the season ... QB Adam DiMichele completed 20-29 passes for a career-high 322 yards and three TDs ... for BGSU, this is the second of three consecutive road games (CMU, Temple, Akron) ... the Falcons 186 rushing yards per game is third best among MAC teams ... the BG ground game is paced by Chris Bullock (497 yards) who has averaged 95 ypg the last five games after gaining just 22 yards in his first two outings ... first year starting QB Anthony Turner ranks sixth in the MAC in passing efficiency at 127.6 (83-141, 997 yards, 7 TDs, 5 int.) ... Devon Parks is tied for third in sacks (6.0) and fifth in tackles for a loss (9.5).

Comment: The last two times the Falcons have played Temple they have scored 70 points each time. That will not happen this weekend since BG’s offense is not to the level of the past few years, but Bowling Green will have few problems with Temple, the nation’s #119 rated team.

Buffalo (1-6, 0-5 MAC) at Boston College (6-1, 3-1 ACC) - 1 pm

Series: BC leads 5-2 ... this is the first meeting since 1970, a 65-12 BC triumph ... all previous seven games were at BC ... UB’s wins came in 1967 (26-14) and 1969 (35-21).

Coaches: UB-Turner Gill (1-6, first season); BC-Tom O’Brien (72-43, 10th season).

Notes:
This will be the second Top 25 ranked team UB plays this year as the Bulls were at then No. 2 ranked Auburn on Sept. 23 ... UB also has a date later this year with Wisconsin ... the Bulls have dropped six in a row since a season-opening 9-3 win over Temple ... BC has a 31-24 win at MAC member Central Michigan to open the season and is 2-0 versus ranked teams (Clemson and Virginia Tech) ... the Eagles are coming off a 24-19 win over Florida State and have won three in a row ... the Bulls were defeated last week at Ohio 42-7 ... the Bulls are allowing a MAC high 36.4 ppg ... BC ranks second in the ACC in total offense (349.0 ypg) ... James Stark scored UB’s only touchdown last week on a four-yard run and ranks ninth in the MAC with his 59.6 ypg rushing average.

Comment: Buffalo played some good football at the beginning of the season but looks like its old self lately. Boston College is one of the nation’s finest programs and should have little trouble disposing of the Bulls. Basically, BC can name the score here so don’t be surprised if Buffalo comes within 36 points due to BC getting conservative early.

Ball State (2-6, 2-3) at Miami (1-7, 1-3) - 2 pm

Series: Miami leads 15-8-1 ... the RedHawks have won the last two with the most recent game coming in 2003 by a 49-3 score ... the last Ball State win came in 2000 at Yager Stadium, 15-10.

Coaches: BSU-Brady Hoke (12-30, fourth season); Miami-Shane Montgomery (8-11, second season)

Notes:
The Cardinals dropped a 41-27 contest to Western Michigan last week while the RedHawks lost a 24-13 contest at Akron ... Miami’s seventh loss guarantees the RedHawks will have their first losing season since 1993 (4-7) ... Ball State needs to win out to finish the season at .500 ... BSU’s passing game is among the nation’s best, ranking eighth in the nation in efficiency, completing 172-of-253 passes for 2,284 yards, 21 TDs and eight interceptions ... senior Joey Lynch and freshman Nate Davis have authored the Cardinals passing numbers ... Lynch threw for a career-high 290 yards versus WMU ... TE Darius Hill has a school record-tying 10 TD receptions ... Miami has played four of the past five weeks on the road but is 0-3 at home this season (Northwestern, Kent State, Northern Illinois) ... QB Mike Kokal continues to lead the MAC in passing yards with 231.7 ypg ... WR Ryne Robinson had nine catches for 135 yards last week and set the school career record for receiving yards at 3,256 ... Robinson also hold the Miami career receptions mark with 226.

Comment: Neither team has played to their potential this year but the Cardinals have been able to display much more offense this year than Miami. BSU averages 29 points per game, mostly through the air, while Miami is averaging just 18 per game. Defensively both teams have looked bad at various times so look for a very high scoring affair and an impressive air attack for each team. When the scoreboard operator finally catches up to the action on the field, the Cardinals should be the team that scores last to pull out an exciting game.

Ohio (5-3, 3-1) at Kent State (5-2, 4-0) - 2 pm

Series: Ohio leads 36-20-2 ... the Bobcats won the 2005 contest 32-25 ... KSU had won the two previous games in 2003 and 2004 ... the series has been continuous since 1949.

Coaches: OU-Frank Solich (9-10, second season at school; 67-29, ninth season overall); KSU-Doug Martin (11-18, third season).

Notes:
First place is up for grabs between two teams picked fourth (Ohio) and fifth (Kent State) in the preseason MAC poll ... KSU is coming off a bye week and last played Oct. 14 with a 40-14 win over Toledo for the Golden Flashes fifth win in a row ... the Bobcats come in with three straight triumphs, most recently stopping Buffalo 42-7 ... KSU last won six games in a season in 2001 and last won seven games in a season in 1987 ... Ohio’s five wins are the most since 2000 (7-4) ... Ohio’s Kalvin McRae has three consecutive games with 100-plus rushing yards (109, Buffalo; 108 Illinois; 120 Western Michigan) and is fifth in the MAC in rushing yards (72.4 ypg) ... Kent State’s success can be linked to its running games as last year the 1-10 Flashes averaged 46 ypg as a team compared to the 189 ypg thus far in 2006 ... Eugene Jarvis 82.3 ypg is third among all league runners ... WR Najah Pruden is averaging 21.0 ypc (29-610) ... both QBs are even in the TD-Int. department as Ohio’s Austen Everson had 6 TDs and 6 INT, while KSU’s Julian Edelman has 7 TD passes and 7 picks.

Comment: Without a doubt this is the game of the weekend for the MAC. The winner will directly control their fate for the east divisional title while the loser will need some help. Kent State has been the "feel good" story of the MAC this season but the Ohio Bobcats have flown under the radar screen and quietly have become a force in the league this year as well. Ohio has the defense to slow down this hot KSU offense but Kent’s defense is even better and will hold down an up and down Bobcat offense. Don’t be surprised if this is the largest attended game ever at Dix Stadium. This is the game to set your VCR – look for a great game, low scoring, big plays and a tight Golden Flash victory.

EMU (1-6, 1-3) at WMU (5-2, 3-1) - 3:30 pm

Series: WMU leads 25-14-2 ... the Broncos won last year’s meeting 44-36 and have captured 12 of the last 14 meetings ... these teams have met continuously since 1974.

Coaches: EMU-Jeff Genyk (9-20, third season); WMU-Bill Cubit (12-6, second season at school; 46-24-1, seventh season overall).

Notes:
The Eagles’ 17-13, fourth-quarter rally for a win over Toledo snapped a six-game losing streak overall and in the series versus the Rockets ... the Broncos won their second in a row last week at Ball State, 41-27, as Ameer Ismail had six sacks ... WMU closes out its home season next week versus Miami ... EMU freshman QB Andy Schmitt had his best game this season by completing 17-27 attempts for 196 yards and 18 rushing attempts for 62 yards ... LB Darran Matthews returned a fumble 87 yards for a defensive PAT to spark EMU’s rally from a 13-9 deficit ... Trumaine Riley increased his MAC career record for kickoff return yards to 2,338 with two returns for 78 yards ... PK Andrew Wellock booted three field goals, increasing his career total to 63, the fourth highest in MAC history ... WMU tops the MAC in total defense (271.1 ypg allowed) and is third in scoring defense (19.1 ppg allowed) ... QB Ryan Cubit has completed 67.5 percent of his pass attempts (104-154) for 1,094 yards and 8 TDs for an efficiency rating of 137.5 but is one game shy of qualifying (75 percent of games played) for MAC and NCAA rankings, otherwise he would rank fourth in the league.

Comment: Historically these teams play some close games with Eastern coming up short. EMU lost heartbreakers to Western in 1992, 1993, 1995, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2002 and 2005. The combined total of these eight losses was 38 points or a 4.7-point loss each time. Eastern finally got their first win last week over Toledo while Western continues its hunt for a conference title showdown with Central Michigan in November. Western is playing very good football right now and will pull away late in the game to seal the win.

Akron (3-4, 1-2) at Toledo (2-6, 0-4) - 7 pm

Series: tied 7-7 ... Toledo has won the last five games ... the most recent contest was in 1998, a 24-17 Rockets’ victory ... since the Zips joined the MAC, and Toledo holds a 5-1 series advantage.

Coaches: UA-J.D. Brookhart (16-15, third season); UT-Tom Amstutz (47-24, sixth season).

Notes:
This game features the two most recent MAC Champions, Akron in 2005 and Toledo in 2004 ... the Rockets have lost four in a row, all of them conference games, for the first time since 1993 ... not since 1978 has UT been 0-4 in league play ... Toledo held EMU to 17 points, its second-best defense showing of the season (McNeese State, 7 points) ... Tyrell Herbert highlighted UT’s defenders with a goal line interception that he ran back 45 yards ... sophomore QB Clint Cochran (6-10, 43 yards, 1 TD) came off the bench to direct scoring drives on two of three possessions he led, both in the fourth quarter ... the defending MAC champion Zips captured their first conference win, 24-13 over Miami, in the first home MAC game for Akron ... after this week, the Zips play three of their four remaining games at home ... RB Dennis Kennedy set career-highs in carries (31) and yards (129) and added two TDs versus the RedHawks ... his 76.3 ypg and six TDs rank third and fourth, respectively, in the MAC ... Luke Getsy’s 11 TD passes are third among MAC QBs.

Nick's 2006 MAC Football Picks - Week #9 Picks

This Week’s Schedule

Northern Illinois (5-3, 3-2) at Iowa (5-3, 2-3 Big Ten) - 11 am CT

Bowling Green (4-4, 3-2) at Temple (0-8) - 1 pm

Buffalo (1-6, 0-5 MAC) at Boston College (6-1, 3-1 ACC) - 1 pm

Ball State (2-6, 2-3) at Miami (1-7, 1-3) - 2 pm

Ohio (5-3, 3-1) at Kent State (5-2, 4-0) - 2 pm

EMU (1-6, 1-3) at WMU (5-2, 3-1) - 3:30 pm

Akron (3-4, 1-2) at Toledo (2-6, 0-4) - 7 pm