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Nick's 2006 MAC Football Picks - Week #6 Recap

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• Central Michigan’s 42-20 win at Toledo boosted the Chippewas into sole possession of first place in the MAC West Division with a 3-0 record. CMU is the lone West team without a loss in conference play. The Chippewas have a chance to go to 4-0 Saturday if they can beat Ball State (2-1). CMU controls its own destiny and its next three conference games are at home – Ball State, Bowling Green and Western Michigan.
• Kent State, the East Division leader with a 3-0 mark, returns to league play this weekend when the Golden Flashes host Toledo. The Golden Flashes won at Temple last weekend for its first I-A non-conference road victory since a September 19, 1987 (31-17 win at Kansas), a span of 36 road games against I-A non-conference foes. KSU is the lone East team without a conference loss. The Golden Flashes play their next two conference games at home – Toledo and Ohio. KSU has never started 4-0 in conference play since joining the MAC in 1951.
• Two MAC teams snapped losing streaks last week. Ball State ended a four-game skid with its 55-25 triumph at Buffalo and Ohio shook its three-game losing streak with a 27-20 win over Western Michigan.
• In Central Michigan’s 42-20 win at Toledo, 2005 MAC Defensive Player of the Year Dan Bazuin caused and returned a fumble 32 yards for a touchdown and a 21-14 lead. The game marked back-to-back wins for CMU over UT for the first time since 1993-94.
• Ohio freshman Chris Garrett returned a punt 88 yards for a touchdown to spark the Bobcats’ 27-20 win over Western Michigan. Garrett’s 26-yards per return average leads the nation.

This Week’s MAC Football Schedule

October 14 - Saturday

*Ball State at Central Michigan, 1:00

*Miami at Buffalo, 1:00

* Northern Illinois at Western Michigan, 2:00 - FSN Ohio, Comcast Local, Comcast Sports, Net, Time Warner-Buffalo

*Eastern Michigan at Bowling Green, 4:00

*Toledo at Kent State, 4:00

Ohio at Illinois, 6:00

Nick’s Pick: Western Michigan 31 – Ohio 14

Actual Score: Ohio 27 – Western Michigan 20

Line: Western by 3.5

Initial Thought/Analysis: Western has the MAC’s top defense (16.5 points per game) and the second best offense (28.2 points per game) while Ohio has the #3 defense (20.4 points) but the #10 offense (17.2). Western has had two weeks to prepare for this game and get healthy while the Bobcats lost at home to BG, a game they feel they should have won if their offense could have done anything. Western may be the hottest team in the MAC right now along with Kent State. Look for the Broncos to remain in 1st place in the MAC West.

Post Game Comment: Ohio rushed for 257 yards as Kalvin McRae led the way with 120 yards with QB Austen Everson adding 92. The Bobcats also got an 85-yard punt return for a TD which proved to be the difference. Western had 19 first downs to just 10 for Ohio as each team lost three turnovers.

Nick’s Pick: Ball State 28 – Buffalo 21

Actual Score: Ball State 55 – Buffalo 25

Line: Ball State by 4

Initial Thought/Analysis: This is a tough game to pick. Buffalo has been playing much better this season under Turner Gill and has done a terrific job at not making mistakes. Ball State has turned their fortunes to a true freshman QB, Nate Davis, who passed for nearly 300-yards and four TDs last week against NIU. Ball State is giving up 30 points per game and defensively they look lost right now. UB is also giving up 40 points per game but has played a more challenging schedule to date. A Buffalo win just may happen this weekend at UB but I will go with Ball State to get a much needed win on the road.

Post Game Comment: True freshman QB Nate Davis, the #1 incoming MAC recruit this publication, went 11-14 for 247 yards and three TDs as the Cardinals romped in Buffalo. Darius Hill had 98-yards in reception with two TDs while BJ Hill ran for 116 yards and two TDs. Buffalo’s Drew Willy passed for a career high 321yards but had his streak of 131 attempts without an interception broken with a second-quarter pickoff by linebacker Mike Dorulla. Overall BSU had 494 yards of total offense.

Nick’s Pick: Kent State 35 – Temple 16

Actual Score: Kent State 28 – Temple 17

Line: KSU by 24

Initial Thought/Analysis: When is the last time Kent State was ever a 24-point favorite? I honestly could not find anything going all the way back to 1991. Kent State is playing with tremendous confidence right now and their offense is beginning to click. Temple is just trying to continue another tumultuous season within the ‘city of brotherly love.’ The Owls have enough talent to possibly make this game interesting but KSU’s Doug Martin has this program pointed in the right direction. Even with a 44-0 loss to Minnesota, KSU’s defense is ranked #2 in the MAC giving up just 18.6 points per game. Kent should win this game by a comfortable margin.

Post Game Comment: Temple played well and trailed just 14-10 late in the 3rd quarter before Kent State pulled away. KSU put up 415 yards of total offense while Temple had just 194, but the Golden Flashes missed out on several scoring opportunities. KSU’s Jon Drager did yeoman’s job in this game as a running-back, return specialist and receiver. QB Julian Edelman accounted for 289-all purpose yards.

Nick’s Pick: Akron 30 – Cincinnati 26

Actual Score: Cincinnati 20 – Akron 14

Line: Cincy by 7

Initial Thought/Analysis: Cincy was able to pull out a 14-point win over long time rival Miami last week. That was their first I-A win of the season. Akron has lost two straight after beating NC State a few weeks ago. This should be a very entertaining game between two evenly-matched teams. Perhaps I am showing my “MAC Hat” here with this prediction, but pick the Zips on the road. In a nutshell, the new AD at Cincinnati was at Akron and hired JD Brookhart three years ago. This game may be an audition for him at Cincy as Mark Dantonio could be gone after this season.

Post Game Comment: After jumping out to a quick 14-0 lead on the Bearcats, Akron had a 4th and short deep into Cincinnati territory and went for it – coming up short. Had they took the short FG or got the first down to set up another score, Akron would have never looked back. Cincy was able to capitalize on this momentum swing and drove down for a FG and then held the Zip offense in check the rest of the game. In the end the Bearcats came to life and held a 441-236 edge in total offense. Over half of Akron’s yards came in the first quarter.

Nick’s Pick: Ohio State 35 – BGSU 10

Actual Score: Ohio State 35 – BGSU 7

Line: OSU by 35

Initial Thought/Analysis: Bowling Green’s 21-9 win at Ohio last week was the Falcons fifth consecutive road win dating back to last season ... the No. 1 ranked Buckeyes are coming off a 38-17 road win at Iowa and three of the Buckeyes five wins are over ranked teams (Texas, Penn State, Iowa) ... OSU also has a 35-12 win over MAC member Northern Illinois in the season opener ... the Falcons will be playing their second Big Ten foe this season as they lost to Wisconsin 35-14 in the season opener ... with Chad Bullock rushing for 114 yards last week, the Falcons have three backs who have 100-yard rushing games this season (Freddie Barnes 158 versus Wisconsin; Anthony Turner 127 versus Buffalo) ... the Buckeyes are allowing just 9.8 ppg, fifth best in the nation, and the defense has 13 takeaways.

Post Game Comment: This game went exactly as predicted. OSU took the early lead but was not out to embarrass the Falcons. OSU held a slim 396-358 lead in total offense as Ted Ginn Jr. hauled in 10 receptions for 122 yards and one TD. Give BG credit for only trailing 21-7 going into the 4th period.

Nick’s Pick: Toledo 27 – Central Michigan 23

Actual Score: Central Michigan 42 – Toledo 20

Line: Toledo by 2

Initial Thought/Analysis: Toledo has not played like the team that opened the season at Iowa State. At times such as last week at Pitt, Toledo has looked abysmal. Last season CMU ended a long drought against Toledo with a home win over the Rockets in a game that went down to the final seconds. That may occur again this season. The only thing going for Toledo is that they are playing at home where they have not lost this season and have only lost twice this millennium, and that Central is dead last in the MAC in turnover ratio. Turnovers have killed the ‘Chips this year. If CMU can take care of the ball, they will win this contest.

Post Game Comment: I attended this game and it is the first time I have seen the Rockets lose in the Glass Bowl since 1996 (vs. Indiana). Toledo blew an early 14-0 lead as CMU went on a 42-0 run. Toledo was plagued by dropped passes and dumb personal foul penalties. Overall Toledo had a commanding 487-390 edge in total offense but the Rockets had four turnovers as Central had 0. Toledo also had a commanding edge in penalty yardage – 113-44.

Nick’s Pick: NIU 42 – Miami 16

Actual Score: NIU 28 – Miami 25

Line: NIU by 11

Initial Thought/Analysis: Miami is off to their worst start since 1989. No one expected this team to be as bad as they are right now. The RedHawks are dead last in the MAC in total offense scoring just 14-points per contest and are rushing for just 73-yards per game. NIU looks to be getting into a mid-season stride and Garrett Wolfe is the very best RB in the nation to date. He will run wild against Miami and this game will probably not be very close.

Post Game Comment: Garrett Wolfe ran for 162 yards and two TDs to overshadow Miami’s Mike Kokal who passed for 324 yards (21 of 29). Miami actually had more yards (469-340) but also had two turnovers. This was the RedHawks best game since losing at Purdue last month, but Miami is still winless in 2006. NIU hasn’t quite looked like the cream of the MAC yet, but Wolfe certainly looked like a legit Heisman candidate.