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Nick's 2006 MAC Football Picks - Week #6 Picks

Central Michigan and Western Michigan, the last two MAC West Division teams without a conference loss, will be tested this week in road games at Toledo and Ohio, respectively. The WMU at Ohio contest is the MAC TV Game of the Week. Sunday night ESPN will televise the Northern Illinois at Miami contest.

This Week’s Schedule

October 7 - Saturday

*Western Michigan at Ohio, noon - FSN Ohio, Comcast Local, CSN Chicago, T-W-13

*Ball State at Buffalo, 1:00 - All MACcess

Kent State at Temple, 1:00 - All MACcess

Akron at Cincinnati, 3:30 - ESPN360

Bowling Green at No. 1 Ohio State, 3:30 - ESPN Plus

*Central Michigan at Toledo, 7:00 - ESPNU

October 8 – Sunday

*Northern Illinois at Miami, 8:00 - ESPN

idle - Eastern Michigan

MAC West Division:
Two West Division teams remain without a loss to date as Central Michigan is 2-0 and Western Michigan 1-0. The Chippewas face a stern road test at Toledo this week as does Western Michigan at Ohio. Should both CMU and WMU keep winning, their Nov. 10 game in Mount Pleasant could be for the West Division title. Also this week Northern Illinois attempts to win its third game in a row as the Huskies are at Miami on Sunday night, and Ball State will try to snap its four-game losing streak with a contest at Buffalo.

MAC East Division:
Kent State keeps on winning and has moved to a league-best 3-0 with a one-game margin over Bowling Green (2-1). The Golden Flashes play a non-conference game at Temple Saturday, and then will attempt to go to 4-0 in MAC play for the first time in history Oct. 14 at home versus Toledo. Buffalo, hosting Ball State, and Miami, hosting Northern Illinois, will be out for their first conference win of 2006. Ohio hosts Western Michigan and could tie Bowling Green for second place with a victory.

Looking Ahead:
Five conference outings are slated for October 14 - including at least one pivotal contest in each division. In the West, Northern Illinois will travel to Western Michigan. In the East, division leader Kent State will host West member Toledo in those schools’ first meeting since 1999. Also on tap are games of Miami at Buffalo, Eastern Michigan at Bowling Green and Ball State at Central Michigan.

Idle This Week:
Eastern Michigan is the lone team with an open week Saturday, the Eagles return to action on October 14 at Bowling Green

National Attention:
Among the national leaders from MAC schools, Northern Illinois Garrett Wolfe is No. 1 in rushing yards per game (236.20), all-purpose yards per game (268.0) and points per game (14.40). Wolfe captured headlines Saturday with his 353 rushing yards in a 40-28 triumph at Ball State. Wolfe’s yardage was the fifth highest single game total in MAC history. Wolfe was honored by the Walter Camp Football Foundation as the National I-A Offensive Player of the Week. He boosted his career rushing yardage to 4,417, the fourth highest in MAC history.

All-time MAC Leading Rushers

1. 5,596 Travis Prentice, Miami 1996-99

2. 4,941 Michael Turner, Northern Illinois, 2000-03

3. 4,659 Chester Taylor, Toledo, 1998-01

4. 4,417 Garrett Wolfe, Northern Illinois, 2002-06

From Goose Egg To Glory:
The two most recent MAC teams to go through a conference season without a league win have rebounded the next season to challenge for a league title. In 2004, UCF, then a MAC member, went 0-8. In 2005, after joining Conference USA, UCF posted a 7-1 league record, hosted the first-ever C-USA championship game and played in the Hawaii Bowl. In 2005, Kent State took the 0-8 collar. This season the Golden Flashes are 3-0 in league action thus far. If KSU went from a no-win season to a league championship, it would match the feat by a previous Golden Flashes team in 1972. The 1971 KSU squad went 0-5 before the 1972 KSU team went 4-1 and won the MAC championship.

MAC NOTES

• Kent State finished last in the MAC in rushing in 2005 with its 45.9 ypg average. Thus far in 2006 the Golden Flashes are third in the league, averaging 168.8 ypg. Regardless, the Flashes leading rusher has no touchdowns. Eugene Jarvis, at 5-feet, 5-inches tall, has 315 yards on 65 attempts but has not scored a touchdown. QB Julian Edelman has a team-high three rushing touchdowns. KSU has eight rushing TDs in its first five games after just five rushing scores in 11 contests in 2005.
• Northern Illinois place-kicker Chris Nendick had his streak of consecutive PATs stopped at 108 in the Ball State game. He was four shy of the MAC record of 112 set by Miami’s John Scott from 1995-98.
• Miami’s Ryne Robinson moved closer to tying an NCAA record with his seventh punt return for a touchdown in the Cincinnati game. Robinson’s 80-yard dash was the RedHawks lone touchdown in the 24-10 loss. His 89 punt return yards moved him to 1,619 career yards and within 143 yards of the NCAA record held by Wes Welker of Texas Tech.
• Northern Illinois head coach Joe Novak has 53 all-time wins as a MAC head coach, tying him with Denny Stolz of Bowling Green (1977-85) for 13th place all-time. Ahead on the list in 12th place is Bill Doolittle of Western Michigan (1964-74) with 58 victories.
• Toledo’s Tom Amstutz has 47 wins as a MAC head coach, 19th all-time and one short of tying Terry Hoeppner of Miami (1999-04) and Frank Lauterbur of Toledo (1963-70).

Western Michigan (3-1, 1-0 MAC) at Ohio (2-3, 1-1 MAC) - 12 pm

Site: Peden Stadium (24,000/field turf) – Athens, Ohio

Television: FSN Ohio, Comcast Local, CSN Chicago, T-W-13 (Michael Reghi, play-by-play; Bob Chmiel, analyst; Rachael Rush, sideline).

Series: WMU leads 29-27-1 ... the most recent meeting were a Bronco's 39-32 win in 2003 ... WMU has won the last two meetings and 11 of the last 14 games.

Coaches: WMU-Bill Cubit (44-22-1, seventh season overall; 10-5, second season at school); OU-Frank Solich (64-29, ninth season overall; 6-10, second season at school).

Notes:
The Broncos are one of three teams undefeated in conference play ... WMU last played Sept. 23 in a 41-7 win over Temple for the Broncos third consecutive win ... the Bobcats are on a three-game losing streak after their 21-9 loss to Bowling Green ... Broncos QB Ryan Cubit, who had not played since the season opener when he sustained a hand injury, returned to complete 15-of-24 passes for 143 yards and two TDs versus Temple ... the Broncos passing attack is supported by the league’s No. 2 rusher in Mark Bonds (100.0 ypg) ... the Broncos +2.0 turnover margin leads the nation ... Ohio has scored just 22 points the last three games after putting up 64 points in the first two games of the season ... the Bobcats are averaging 66.0 rushing yards per game with Kalvin McRae gaining 48 of those ... Ohio is third in the MAC in scoring defense, allowing 20.4 ppg, while WMU leads that category with a paltry 16.5 ppg allowed ... WMU has won three in a row.

Nick’s Pick: Western 31 – Ohio 14

Line: Western by 3.5

Comment: Western has the MAC’s top defense (16.5 points per game) and the second best offense (28.2 points per game) while Ohio has the #3 defense (20.4 points) but the #10 offense (17.2). Western has had two weeks to prepare for this game and get healthy while the Bobcats lost at home to BG, a game they feel they should have won if their offense could have done anything. Western may be the hottest team in the MAC right now along with Kent State. Look for the Broncos to remain in 1st place in the MAC West.

Ball State (1-4, 1-1 MAC) at Buffalo (1-3, 0-2 MAC) - 1 pm

Site: UB Stadium (29,013/artificial sportexe momentum) – Buffalo, N.Y.

Television: None

Series: BSU leads 4-0 ... the most recent meeting came in 2002 in Muncie, a 41-21 Cardinals win ... the first meeting was in 1969.

Coaches: BSU-Brady Hoke (11-28, fourth season); UB-Turner Gill (1-3, first season).

Notes:
Both teams opened their respective season with a win but have lost every game since that time ... BSU dropped a 40-28 decision last week to Northern Illinois ... the Bulls were idle last week and last played Sept. 23 in a 38-7 loss at No. 2 ranked Auburn ... two QBs in this game have not thrown an interception this season – UB’s Drew Wiley in 118 attempts and BSU’s Nate Davis in 77 attempts ... the Cardinals also feature Joey Lynch at QB... Davis and Lynch rank No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in the MAC in passing efficiency ... the Lynch-Davis combo has passed for 15 TDs this season, the second highest total in the nation behind Texas Tech’s 16 ... for BSU, five of its next six games are on the road ... UB’s ability to rush the ball is led by freshman James Starks, whose 56.8 ypg average is the eighth highest total in the MAC.

Nick’s Pick: Ball State 28 – Buffalo 21

Line: Ball State by 4

Comment: This is a tough game to pick. Buffalo has been playing much better this season under Turner Gill and has done a terrific job at not making mistakes. Ball State has turned their fortunes to a true freshman QB, Nate Davis, who passed for nearly 300-yards and four TDs last week against NIU. Ball State is giving up 30 points per game and defensively they look lost right now. UB is also giving up 40 points per game but has played a more challenging schedule to date. A Buffalo win just may happen this weekend at UB but I will go with Ball State to get a much needed win on the road.

Kent State (3-2, 3-0 MAC) at Temple (0-5 Independent) - 1 pm

Site: Lincoln Financial Field (68,532/grass) – Philadelphia, Pa.

Television: None

Series: First meeting.

Coaches: KSU-Doug Martin (9-18, third season); Al Golden (0-5, first season).

Notes:
Kent State, with its 37-15 win over Akron, has won three in a row and steps out of league play to face future (2007) MAC East foe Temple ... the Owls lost a 43-14 contest last week at Vanderbilt ... KSU QB Julian Edelman is posting per game averages of 186 passing yards and 53 rushing yards and threw for 305 yards last week against the league’s No. 3 ranked passing offense ... the Owls, who have played 19 true freshman this season, scored their first two touchdowns this year at Vandy ... Tim Brown scored on a 78-yard run and sophomore QB Adam DiMichele engineered a 41-play, 80-yard drive that culminated in a 10-yard scoring pass to true frosh Marcus Brown ... KSU has rushed for eight TDs thus far in 2006 after scoring just five times via the ground in 2005 ... as well, the Flashes have boosted their rushing average from 46 ypg (2005) to 169 (2006).

Nick’s Pick: Kent State 35 – Temple 16

Line: Kent State by 24

Comment: When is the last time Kent State was ever a 24-point favorite? I honestly could not find anything going all the way back to 1991. Kent State is playing with tremendous confidence right now and their offense is beginning to click. Temple is just trying to continue another tumultuous season within the ‘city of brotherly love.’ The Owls have enough talent to possibly make this game interesting but KSU’s Doug Martin has this program pointed in the right direction. Even with a 44-0 loss to Minnesota, KSU’s defense is ranked #2 in the MAC giving up just 18.6 points per game. Kent should win this game by a comfortable margin.

Akron (2-3, 0-2 MAC) at Cincinnati (2-3, 0-1 Big East) - 3:30 pm

Site: Nippert Stadium (35,000/field turf) – Cincinnati, Ohio

Television: ESPN360 (Frank Giardina, play-by-play; Ron Brown, analyst)

Series: UA leads 2-1 ... the last meeting was in 1992, a 24-22 Zips triumph

Coaches: UA-J.D. Brookhart (15-13, third season); UC-Mark Dantonio (13-15, third season).

Notes:
The Zips lost at rival Kent State last week to fall to 0-2 in league play ... the Bearcats are fresh off a 24-10 win over MAC member Miami, a win that snapped a three-game losing streak ... Akron’s Dennis Kennedy returned last week after missing the North Texas game with an injury and rushed for 91 yards, his second highest total of the season ... Luke Getsy leads the MAC in passing yards per game at 242.4 and is tied in TD passes with nine ... after this game, the Zips play at home for three of the next four contests ... this game marks the Zips final non-conference encounter of the 2006 season.

Nick’s Pick: Akron 30 – Cincinnati 26

Line: Cincinnati by 7

Comment: Cincy was able to pull out a 14-point win over long time rival Miami last week. That was their first I-A win of the season. Akron has lost two straight after beating NC State a few weeks ago. This should be a very entertaining game between two evenly-matched teams. Perhaps I am showing my “MAC Hat” here with this prediction, but pick the Zips on the road. In a nutshell, the new AD at Cincinnati was at Akron and hired JD Brookhart three years ago. This game may be an audition for him at Cincy as Mark Dantonio could be gone after this season.

Bowling Green (3-2, 2-1 MAC) at #1 Ohio State (5-0, 2-0 Big Ten)

Site: Ohio Stadium (102,329/grass) – Columbus, Ohio

Television: ESPN Plus (Craig Coshun, play-by-play; Chris Martin, analyst)

Series: OSU leads 3-0 ... the Buckeyes won 24-17 in 2003.

Coaches: BGSU-Gregg Brandon (29-13, fourth season); OSU-Jim Tressel (190-70-2, 21st season overall; 55-13, sixth season at school).

Notes:
Bowling Green’s 21-9 win at Ohio last week was the Falcons fifth consecutive road win dating back to last season ... the No. 1 ranked Buckeyes are coming off a 38-17 road win at Iowa and three of the Buckeyes five wins are over ranked teams (Texas, Penn State, Iowa) ... OSU also has a 35-12 win over MAC member Northern Illinois in the season opener ... the Falcons will be playing their second Big Ten foe this season as they lost to Wisconsin 35-14 in the season opener ... with Chad Bullock rushing for 114 yards last week, the Falcons have three backs who have 100-yard rushing games this season (Freddie Barnes 158 versus Wisconsin; Anthony Turner 127 versus Buffalo) ... the Buckeyes are allowing just 9.8 ppg, fifth best in the nation, and the defense has 13 takeaways.

Nick’s Pick: Ohio State 35 – BGSU 10

Line: Ohio State by 35

Comment: BG is played much better last week at Ohio than they did two weeks ago at home against Kent State. Ohio State will likely be a little down after such an emotional beating of a quality opponent, Iowa, last weekend. Coach Tressel has class and will not try to run up the score against an in-state team. OSU has far superior talent but the final score will not indicate that.

Related VanDelaySports.com Links:

Week #5 MAC Football recap

2006 MAC Football Pigskin Preview

2006 Preseason All-VanDelay team

CMU (2-3, 2-0 MAC) at Toledo (2-3, 0-1 MAC)

Site: Glass Bowl (26,248/NeXturf) – Toledo, Ohio

Television: ESPNU (Mike Adamle, play-by-play; Charles Arbuckle, analyst)

Series: UT leads 17-14-3 ... CMU’s 21-17 win in 2005 snapped the Rockets 10-game winning streak in the series ... the series began in 1928 and has been continuous since 1975 ... the Rockets have won the last five games played in Toledo.

Coaches: CMU-Brian Kelly (130-50-2, 18th season; 12-15, third year at school); UT-Tom Amstutz (47-21, seventh season).

Notes:
The Chippewas can move to 3-0 in the conference for the first time since 1990 ... in CMU’s 45-36 loss at Kentucky last week, QB Dan LeFevour established career-highs with 360 passing yards and four touchdowns while completing 22-of-38 attempts ... the Chippewas offer a solid 1-2 receiving threat in Bryan Anderson (30 rec., 395 yards, 2 TDs) and Damien Linson (24-344-2) ... UT has a 36-2 record in its last 38 home games ... the Chippewas last win at the Glass Bowl came in 1993 ... true frosh Aaron Opelt saw the most action last week at Pitt in the Rockets 45-3 loss, completing 15-of-30 attempts for 92 yards and leading the team in rushing with 56 yards ... regular starting QB Clint Cochran sat out his second consecutive game with an injury ... WR Steve Odom grabbed four passes last week and extended his streak of consecutive games with a reception to 42, the longest in the nation and fourth highest total in MAC history.

Nick’s Pick: Toledo 27 – Central 23

Line: Toledo by 2

Comment: Toledo has not played like the team that opened the season at Iowa State. At times such as last week at Pitt, Toledo has looked abysmal. Last season CMU ended a long drought against Toledo with a home win over the Rockets in a game that went down to the final seconds. That may occur again this season. The only thing going for Toledo is that they are playing at home where they have not lost this season and have only lost twice this millennium, and that Central is dead last in the MAC in turnover ratio. Turnovers have killed the ‘Chips this year. If CMU can take care of the ball, they will win this contest.

Sunday, October 8th

Northern Illinois (3-2, 2-1 MAC) at Miami (0-5, 0-1 MAC) 8 pm

Site: Yager Stadium (24,286/field turf) – Oxford, Ohio

Television: ESPN (Mark Jones, play-by-play; David Norrie, analyst; Chris Spielman, analyst; Stacey Dales, sideline).

Series: Miami leads 7-4 ... the Huskies have won the last two meetings, including last year’s 38-27 contest.

Coaches: NIU-Joe Novak (57-62, 11th season); MIA-Shane Montgomery (7-9, third season).

Notes:
The RedHawks will be challenged by the nation’s leader in rushing yards (236.2 ypg) and all-purpose yards (268.0) in the Huskies Garrett Wolfe ... Wolfe blazed for 353 yards last week in a 40-28 win at Ball State ... Miami is out to snap a five-game losing streak, its longest since dropping the last two games in 1988 and the first five games in 1989 ... Huskie mentor Joe Novak is a 1967 graduate of Miami and played there for Bo Schembechler ... Miami RB Brandon Murphy has returned from injury to rush 40 times for 157 yards the last three games with a long run of 23 yards last week at Cincinnati ... NIU QB Phil Horvath has thrown for five TDs and just two interceptions in 125 attempts ... Miami redshirt freshman Daniel Raudabaugh started in place of Mike Kokal last week and completed 21-of-47 attempts for 190 yards in a loss at Cincinnati ... the RedHawks lone touchdown came on an 80-yard punt return by Ryne Robinson, his seventh career TD on a punt return.

Nick’s Pick: NIU 42 – Miami 16

Line: NIU by 11

Related VanDelaySports.com Links:

Week #5 MAC Football recap

2006 MAC Football Pigskin Preview

2006 Preseason All-VanDelay team