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Nick's 2006 MAC Football Picks - Week #4 Picks

This Week’s Schedule - September 23 rd

*Kent State at Bowling Green, 1:00 -BCSN same day delay/All MACcess

Ohio at Missouri, 1:00 - Mizzou AllAccess web stream

Buffalo at No. 2/No. 3 Auburn, 1:30 (CT) - Comcast Sports Southeast

Indiana State at Northern Illinois, 2:00 (CT) - CSN Chicago/All MACcess

*Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan, 3:30 - Comcast Local/All MACcess

North Texas at Akron, 6:00 - All MACcess

North Dakota State at Ball State, 6:30 - All MACcess

Temple at Western Michigan, 7:00 - All MACcess

McNeese State at Toledo, 7:00 -BCSN delay/All MACcess

Miami at Syracuse, 7:00 - ESPNU

All times local to playing site

Rankings from A.P./USA TODAY-ESPN polls

MAC West Division
Central Michigan (1-0 MAC) has a chance to grab first place in the West Division should the Chippewas get by rival Eastern Michigan (0-1) for the first time in three seasons

MAC East Division
Two MAC teams have a chance to go to 2-0 in league this upcoming Saturday. A pair of 1-0 teams meet when Kent State is at Bowling Green - Looking Ahead: Three conference games take place Sept. 30 with Bowling Green at Ohio, Akron at Kent State and Northern Illinois at Ball State.

Two Will Do:

In 1998 (Toledo), 1999 (Western Michigan) and 2005 (Northern Illinois) a team with two conference losses has advanced from the West Division to the MAC Championship game when eight games were counted in the standings. In 2000 and 2001 a teams divisional record counted toward its respective standing (6 games in the East; 5 in the West) due to an unbalanced schedule.

MAC QUICK NOTES

• Western Michigan’s 17-10 over Virginia marked the MAC’s second win over an ACC for in as many weeks. Two weeks ago Akron topped N.C. State 20-17. The Broncos win was their first-ever over an ACC opponent
• WMU’s Mark Bonds rushed for 118 yards on 27 attempts at Virginia on Saturday - in last year’s contest vs. the Cavaliers, Bonds gained 119 yards on 30 carries
• NIU ‘s Garrett Wolfe rushed for 263 yards on 24 carries Saturday vs. Buffalo - Wolfe has 3,916 career rushing yards and is 84 yards shy of becoming the 11th player in MAC history to reach 4,000 yards – he leads the nation in rushing yards (210.0 ypg) and all-purpose yards (248.0 ypg)
• BGSU’s 33-28 win at FIU was the Falcons fourth consecutive road win dating back to last year - BG had wins last year at Buffalo, Kent State and Miami in their last three road contests in 2005
• Kent State’s 16-14 win at Miami snapped an 11-game losing streak dating back to last year and was the Golden Flashes first win in Oxford since 1988 - KSU last started 2-0 in MAC play in 2003 when the Flashes beat Akron and UCF - Prior to 2003, it had been since 1986 when KSU started 2-0 in league play
• Toledo’s 37-31 double OT win at home vs. Kansas pushed the Rockets home record to 35-2 in its last 37 home games
• With its win over Akron, Central Michigan has now won three straight games over defending Mid-American Conference divisional champions dating back to last season - the ‘Chips defeated Miami (East Division) and Toledo (West Division) in 2005
• Central Michigan’s Josh Gordy tied an NCAA record with his 100-yard interception return in the second quarter - he is the first Division I-A player since 2003 to return an interception 100 yards for a score - the last CMU player to return an interception 100 yards was Shawn Williams at Eastern Michigan in a 36-23 overtime win in 1998 - Gordy is the 75 th player in Division I-A history to return an interception 100 yards
• Toledo’s Barry Church had 8 tackles, 1 TFL, one interception, one fumble recovery and one pass break-up vs. Kansas - he returned his interception 84 yards for a TD to give Toledo a 31-23 lead with 7:19 to play and it was the third-longest INT return in school history - Church later recovered the fumble in the first overtime, giving a chance to win it in the second OT

Saturday’s game between Eastern Michigan and Central Michigan will start the battle for the Michigan-Mid-American Conference Trophy sponsored by the state of Michigan Sports Hall of Fame - The trophy is awarded to the Michigan-MAC school that holds the season’s advantage in football games played between EMU, CMU and WMU - EMU won the trophy in 2004 and WMU in 2005

Kent State (1-2, 1-0 MAC) at BGSU (2-1, 1-0 MAC) - 1 pm

Site: Doyt L. Perry Stadium (23,724/grass) Bowling Green, Ohio

Television: BCSN same day delay

Series: BGSU leads 52-15-6 ... the Falcons have won the last five ... KSU last won in Bowling Green in 1972.

Notes:
KSU surprised Miami last week, winning 16-14 in Oxford for the first time since 1988 ... the Flashes snapped an 11-game losing streak as well ... after averaging just 45.9 yards per game rushing last year (last in the MAC), KSU is rushing for 157.3 ypg, third in the MAC, thus far in 2006 ... 5-foot, 5-inch tall Eugene Jarvis tops the team with 73.7 ypg and QB Julian Edelman adds 58.0 ypg ... WR Najah Pruden is averaging 22.9 ypr on 14 catches ... BG defeated FIU 33-28 in Miami as Freddie Barnes, a redshirt freshman, scored via a reception (16 yards for a 7-0 lead); via a pass (3 yards, 13-7) and rush (7 yards, 30-21) ... Barnes’109 rushing yards per game is second in the league and his 12.0 points per game ranks first ... the Falcons 245.3 ypg rushing is the best in the MAC and seventh nationally.

Nick’s Pick: BGSU 24 – Kent St 20

Line: BG by 7

Comment: Bowling Green has dominated Kent St through the years but I stated that same thing last week with Miami’s dominance over KSU and that logic ended up biting me in the tail-feather. BG has been able to win the close games thus far and playing at home is always a plus in the MAC. This is the third straight road game for the Golden Flashes. Look for a very close game but give the nod to the home team.

Ohio (2-1, 1-0 MAC) at Missouri (3-0, 0-0 Big 12) - 1 pm CT

Site: Memorial Stadium (68,349/field turf) Columbia, Mo.

Television: None

Series: first meeting

Notes:
Ohio lost last week at Rutgers 24-7 ... the Tigers are coming off a 27-17 road win at New Mexico ... UM also has home wins over Ole Miss and Murray State ... Solich is 5-1 all-time versus Missouri with all those games from 1998-2003 while he was head coach at Nebraska ... Pinkel is 5-0 all-time versus Ohio with those meetings from 1991-2000 while Pinkel was head coach at MAC member Toledo ... the Bobcats lead the MAC in scoring defense, allowing 16.7 ppg ... Missouri’s 485 ypg in total offense is the best among Big 12 teams and ranks fifth in the nation ... Ohio QB Austen Everson’s 131.6 efficiency rating ranks second in the MAC (42-69, 448 yards, 4 TDs, 1 int.).

Nick’s Pick: Missouri 30 – Ohio 13

Line: Missouri by 22

Comment: Frank Solich used to be at Nebraska and is quite familiar with Missouri football. Gary Pinkel used to be at Toledo and played at Kent State so he is quite familiar with the MAC. Ohio has the defense to make this a game but outside of one game at NIU, the Bobcats have not shown much scoring ability. Ohio has a mild chance at an upset but more likely is a relatively close game with the Tigers raising their record to 4-0 and moving closer into a top-25 ranking.

Indiana State (0-3, 0-0 Gateway) at NIU (1-2, 1-1 MAC) - 2 pm CT

Site: Huskie Stadium (28,000/field turf) DeKalb, Ill.

Television: CSN Chicago

Series: ISU leads 5-3 ... this is the first meeting since 1976 ... the Sycamores have won the last three meetings.

Notes:
The Huskies snapped a three-game losing streak with last weeks 31-13 triumph over Buffalo ... the Sycamores lost to Murray State last week 59-40 ... ISU head coach Lou West served as Toledo’s defensive coordinator from 2001-04 ... NIU features the MAC’s top rusher in Garrett Wolfe (210.0 ypg) ... DE Ken West leads the league with two forced fumbles ... this is the last of three consecutive home games for the Huskies before embarking on three straight road games (Ball State, Miami, Western Michigan) ... Wolfe has 744 all-purpose yards, which is 57 percent of NIU’s total offense (1,305 yards).

Nick’s Pick: NIU 45 – ISU 14

Line: NL

Comment: Former Toledo defensive coordinator, Lou West, has yet to win a game in fourteen tries as the ISU head coach. The Sycamores are giving up an average of 50-points per game. This is the type of opponent that NIU needs before their three game road trip. The game may not be as close as predicted above.

Buffalo (1-2, 0-2 MAC) at #2 Auburn (3-0, 2-0 SEC) - 1:30 CT

Site: Jordan-Hare Stadium (87,451/grass) Auburn, Ala.

Television: Comcast Sports Southeast

Series: first meeting

Notes:
The Tigers are coming off a 7-3 showdown win over No. 6 ranked LSU ... Auburn has allowed just 17 points in three games, a 5.7 ppg average - the fourth best total in the nation ... the Bulls dropped a 31-13 decision last week at Northern Illinois and will be playing their third consecutive road game this week ... QB Drew Willey has attempted 97 passes this season without an interception ... UB’s special teams top the MAC in kickoff returns (27.9 ypr) and punt returns (18.0 ypr) ... RB James Starks is averaging 5.2 yards per carry (161 yards, 31 attempts) ... UB’s last non-conference road win came in 2002 at Rutgers, 34-11 ... Auburn has won eight consecutive home games and the program has won 80 percent of its home games since Jordan-Hare Stadium was opened in 1939.

Nick’s Pick: Auburn 38 – Buffalo 3

Line: Auburn by 42

Comment: Auburn is coming off of a very hard fought and emotional 7-3 victory over SEC rival LSU. Buffalo has played very well under their new coaching staff and very easily could be 2-1. Make no mistake, Auburn is far superior than Buffalo in every phase of the game but given the Tigers may have a minor emotional let down against UB means the game should be a little closer than the odds-makers believe.

CMU (1-2, 1-0 MAC) at EMU (0-3, 0-1 MAC) - 3:30 pm

Site: Rynearson Stadium (30,200/field turf) Ypsilanti, Mich.

Television: Comcast Local (Ben Holden, play-by-play; Rob Otto, analyst)

Series: CMU leads 52-25-6 ... EMU has captured the last two meetings ... last year’s game was a 23-20 overtime tussle ... the 2004 contest played at Ford Field in Detroit went four OTs before the Eagles prevailed 61-58 ... the first meeting came in 1902.

Notes:
This is the first home game for EMU in 2006 ... the Chippewas can go 2-0 in the league for the first time since 1998 with a win ... EMU can snap a three-game losing streak with a victory and haven’t started a season 0-4 since 1994 ... the 14 points allowed at Northwestern last week was the lowest scored against the Eagles in the last seven games dating back to last year ... Eagles’ PK Andrew Wellock is 6-for-6 in FG this year and his 59 career three-pointers are tied for sixth all-time in MAC history ... Wellock’s 83.1 percent (59-of-71) career FG accuracy rate is the best in league history ... CMU redshirt frosh QB Dan LeFevour was 16-of-23 (69.6 percent) for 162 yards, one TD and one interception in last weeks 24-21 win over defending MAC Champion Akron ... for CMU this is the first of three consecutive road games (Kentucky and Toledo).

Nick’s Pick: Central 34 – Eastern 31 (OT)

Line: Central by 4.5

Comment: Eastern has won two straight in this series and each contest went to overtime. Another OT battle may happen again this weekend. Eastern faces a must win game and will treat this like a bowl game since it is the first leg to the “Michigan MAC Trophy Award.” Central finally got the monkey off of their back against Akron but will need to play a good game against their intra-state rival to break this two-year spell. Look for Central to move to 2-0 in MAC play and once again and expect either overtime or the game going down to the wire in regulation.

Related VanDelaySports.com Links:

Week #3 MAC Football recap

2006 MAC Football Pigskin Preview

2006 Preseason All-VanDelay team

North Texas (1-2, 0-1 Sun Belt) at Akron (1-2, 0-1 MAC) 6 pm

Site: Rubber Bowl (31,000/astroplay) Akron, Ohio

Television: None

Series: Akron leads 1-0 ... the Zips won 20-6 in 1971.

Notes:
The Zips dropped their conference opener last week at Central Michigan 24-21 ... the Mean Green lost last week to Tulsa 28-3 and has its lone win this year over SMU 24-6 ... the Zips racked up 375 passing yards behind Luke Getsy ... Jabari Arthur (137 yards) and David Harvey (133 yards) both eclipsed the 100-yard receiving barrier ... for Harvey, a true freshman, it was his second 100-yard plus game this season ... the Zips are one of two MAC teams (WMU) allowing less than 100-yards rushing per game (95.3) and lead the MAC in total defense (287.7 ypg allowed) ... North Texas ranks last in the Sun Belt in total offense (165.7 ypg) but has faced then No. 2 ranked Texas and C-USA teams Tulsa and SMU as opponents ... Zips QB Luke Getsy has completed 49.6 percent of his pass attempts after 53.0 percent last year.

Nick’s Pick: Akron 31 – North Texas 10

Line: Akron by 17

Comment: Akron has one of the MAC’s best defenses thus far but still needs work on their pass rush. UNT has lost to reigning C-USA champ Tulsa and beat C-USA bottom feeder SMU. The ‘mean green’ got bombed by Texas in week #1. Anything less than a convincing victory would be considered a disappointment for the Zips – expect Akron to win big.

ND State (2-0, 0-0 Great West) at Ball State (1-2, 1-0 MAC) 6:30 pm

Site: Scheumann Stadium (22,500/grass) Muncie, Ind.

Television: None

Series: first meeting

Notes:
The Cardinals dropped their second consecutive game last week, 38-28 at Purdue ... the Bison are coming off a 23-10 win vs. Northeastern ... they also play I-A foe Minnesota later this season ... the Cardinals feature the MAC’s top rated QB in passing efficiency with Joey Lynch at 145.2 (42-of-70, 561 yards, 5 TDs, 2 int.) ... Lynch’s top targets are Larry Bostic (16 rec., 149 yards) and TE Darius Hill (11 rec., 202 yards, 4 TDs) ... Hill’s 4 TD receptions lead the MAC ... Bostic had 10 receptions for 99 yards at Purdue ... Nate Davis (20-of-28, 249 yards, 4 TDs, 0 int.) has also seen duty at QB.

Nick’s Pick: Ball State 33 – NDSU 17

Line: NL

Comment: NDSU Coach Craig Bohl is 25-10 in four seasons for the Bison and have beaten Concordia-St. Paul and Northeastern to date, so it’s difficult to get a read on them. Ball St will win this game by a comfortable margin but again, getting a read on the Bison against a IA team is not easy.

Temple (0-3 Independent) at WMU (2-1, 1-0 MAC) 7 pm

Site: Waldo Stadium (30,200/field turf) Kalamazoo, Mich.

Television: None

Series: WMU leads 3-1 ... the Broncos won last year 19-16 and have won the last three meetings ... the Owls win came in 1986, 49-17.

Notes:
The Broncos surprised ACC foe Virginia last week 17-10 ... the Owls dropped a 62-0 decision at Minnesota ... for Temple, this is the second of six games against MAC teams this season ... this marks the Owls third road game of their first four contests in 2006 ... Temple QB Adam DiMichele has been successful on 66.7 percent (32-of-48) of his pass attempts (294 yards, 0 TDs) ... the Broncos have received solid play from JUCO QB Thomas Peregrin (27-of-38, 178 yards, 3 TDs, 0 int.) in the absence of regular starter Ryan Cubit (hand injury) ... TB Mark Bonds is one of three MAC players to averaged over 100 yards per game, posting 104.3 ypg ... DB Londen Fryar has two interceptions in three games, the first picks of his career.

Nick’s Pick: Western 37 – Temple 7

Line: Western by 28

Comment: A year ago this game went right down to the wire in Philadelphia but these are two programs going in opposite directions. Western is getting better game by game and certainly will be a real factor for a MAC title this year evident by their wins over Toledo and Virginia. Temple is getting bombed by everyone and in all honesty, should seriously consider dropping football altogether. Expect a Bronco rout.

McNeese St. (1-1, 0-0 Southland) at Toledo (1-2, 0-1 MAC) 7 pm

Site: Glass Bowl (26,248/NeXturf) Toledo, Ohio

Television: BCSN same day delay

Series: McNeese leads 2-0 ... the Cowboys have wins in 1980 (20-17) and 1988 (46-19).

Notes:
Toledo snapped its two-game losing streak last week, beating Kansas 37-31 in double overtime ... the Cowboys topped West Virginia State two weeks ago 76-0 and lost 41-10 at South Florida the week before after trailing just 14-10 going into the fourth quarter ... the Rockets have played five OT periods this season (double OT vs. Kansas, triple OT at Iowa State) ... the Kansas game went 4 hours and 2 minutes in length ... WR Steve Odom has caught a pass in 40 consecutive games, the longest active streak in the nation ... Jason Parmele ended the game with a 25-yard TD dash on the Rockets’ first play in the second OT ... Parmele’s 87.0 ypg average ranks fourth among all MAC running backs.

Nick’s Pick: Toledo 35 – McNeese State 16

Line: NL

Comment: McNeese State is a very good I-AA program and is currently ranked #13 for that level. They have already played one IA team, losing at South Florida of the Big East 41-10. It should be noted that USF outscored McNSU 27-0 in the 4th Quarter. The Cowboys are a very good team that could beat several IA teams this year, including one or two from the MAC. Expect a close and physical game with Toledo pulling away in the second half.

Miami (0-3, 0-1 MAC) at Syracuse (1-2, 0-0 Big East) 7 pm

Site: Carrier Dome (49,262/field turf) Syracuse, N.Y.

Television: ESPNU

Series: Syracuse leads 2-0 ... the Orange won 36-24 in 1980 and 24-10 in 1987.

Notes:

After Saturday’s 16-14 loss to Kent State, the RedHawks are 0-3 to start the season for the first time since 1990 ...their last 0-4 start was in 1989 ... Orange beat Illinois 31-21 last week for their first win of 2006 and to end an 11-game losing streak dating back to last year ... Syracuse is 14-6-1 all-time versus MAC teams ... Miami RB Brandon Murphy returned from injury last week to rush for 92 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries ... a total of 17 redshirt and true freshmen have appeared on the RedHawks two-deep this season ... QB Mike Kokal has completed 62.5 percent (65-of-104) of his pass attempts for 697 yards and 4 TDs ... Miami did not score a touchdown its first six quarters at home this season ... the RedHawks play four of its next five games on the road ... for the Orange, this is the first of three consecutive home games (Wyoming and Pittsburgh).

Related VanDelaySports.com Links:

Week #3 MAC Football recap

2006 MAC Football Pigskin Preview

2006 Preseason All-VanDelay team