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Nick's 2007 MAC Football Picks - Week #5 Picks

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Week #5 MAC Football Notes

GROUNDED:
Add Ball State’s MiQuale Lewis (447 yards, 2 TDs, 92 attempts, 4.9 ypc) to the list of MAC RBs lost for the season. Lewis sustained a fourth-quarter injury at Nebraska on September 22. Previously, Miami lost its top two backs, Brandon Murphy and Andre Bratton for the season.

Northern Illinois @ Central Michigan

Northern Illinois (1-3, 0-1 MAC West, 0-1 MAC Overall) at Central Michigan (1-3, 1-0 MAC West, 1-0 MAC Overall) - Noon

SITE: Kelly-Shorts Stadium (30,255/FieldTurf) - Mount Pleasant, Mich.

TELEVISION: ESPN Game Plan/ESPN Plus

SERIES RECORD: NIU leads 22-19-1 ... the Huskies have won the last nine meetings, including a 31-10 conquest last year in handing the MAC Champions their only league loss of 2006 ... CMU’s most recent win came in 1997 in a season-opening 44-10 contest ... these two programs have represented the West Division in the last two MAC Championship games.

COACHES: NIU-Joe Novak (62-69, 12th season); CMU-Butch Jones (1-3, first season).

NIU @ CMU - GAME NOTES:
The defending MAC Champion Chippewas, with a divisional victory already in hand over Toledo, can take another huge step toward defense of its title with a win ... the Huskies have a divisional loss to Eastern Michigan but are coming off their first win of the season, 42-35 at Idaho ... Larry English had five sacks, a school record, vs. the Vandals ... Justin Anderson powered the offense with 167 rushing yards, his second consecutive game with 100-yards plus via the ground ... the Huskies were fueled by three TDs not scored by the offense - a 95-yard interception return by Chase Carter, a fumble caused and recovered in the end zone by English, and a punt block by Matt Simon recovered by Jeff Fontana in the end zone ... Simon’s 115 receiving yards were the first by a Huskie reaching 100-yards via the air this season ... PK Chris Nendick has 294 career points and with six more will become the 11th player in MAC history to reach 300 points ... CMU was missing six starters on defense last week and have losses to teams that are a combined 11-0 (Kansas, Purdue, North Dakota State) ... QB Dan LeFevour has thrown a scoring pass in 11 consecutive games ... WR Bryan Anderson, just a sophomore, has reached 100 career receptions, including 27 this season ... after rushing for 178 yards vs. Toledo in week two, Ontario Sneed has been held to just 55 yards in CMU’s last two games.

Nick’s Pick: NIU 37 – Central Michigan 35

Line: Central by 2

Comment: Both teams are searching for an identity after slow starts. The Chippewas suffered an embarrassing 44-14 loss to North Dakota State, while the Huskies lost two games in which they had double-digit leads at one point. Stopping CMU quarterback Dan LeFevour is the main priority for the Huskies defense. The sophomore ranks third in the conference with 966 passing yards. Entering the Idaho game, the Huskies had forced one turnover in three games. The defense responded with two touchdowns, five sacks and three interceptions last week. Junior defensive end Larry English recorded a single-game school record of five sacks and a personal-best 12 tackles. The Huskies have established a disturbing trend of not scoring in the second half; through four games, the Huskies have scored just 23 points after halftime. The Chippewas have lost nine straight games to the Huskies, but CMU should have a big crowd on Homecoming. Despite dropping three of their first four games by an average margin of 47-10, including an embarrassing 44-14 blowout at home against North Dakota State, the Chippewas (1-3, 1-0 MAC) are still in first place in the MAC West. The Chippewas defense ranks 112th or worse nationally in tackles for loss, passing defense, pass defense efficiency, scoring defense and total defense. The Chips are surrendering an average of 43 points and 503 yards per game. Expect a big first half for NIU and a really big comeback for the ‘Chips in the second, only to fall short.

> View the VanDelay Sports selection of CMU Chippewas merchandise & apparel.

Temple @ Army

Temple (0-4, 0-2 MAC East, 0-2 MAC overall) at Army (1-3, Independent) - Noon

SITE: Michie Stadium (40,000/FieldTurf) - West Point, N.Y.

TELEVISION: ESPNU

SERIES RECORD: Army leads 3-1 ... Temple won the last meeting, 23-20 in 1994 ... Army’s wins came in 1943, 1987 and 1993.

COACHES: TU-Al Golden (1-15, second season); Army (Stan Brock, 1-3, first season).

Temple @ Army - GAME NOTES:

The Owls are after their first win of 2007 after a 48-35 loss at Bowling Green last week ... Army is coming off a 37-17 loss at Boston College ... the Black Knights play three MAC opponents this year - Akron, Temple and Central Michigan ... Akron defeated Army 23-14 to open the season ... in the loss at BG, Adam DiMichele threw for 299 yards and a career-high four touchdowns while completing 27-of-41 attempts with no interceptions ... DiMichele is tied for second in the MAC with seven TD passes and is third in pass efficiency with a 135.5 rating ... after rushing for just 39 yards (on 14 attempts) in Temple’s first two games, sophomore Jason Harper has gained 202 yards on 46 carries the last two games (114 at Connecticut, 88 at Bowling Green) ... along with 84 yards at Western Michigan last year, Harper’s best rushing outings have come on the road ... Temple has dropped seven consecutive games dating back to last season ... the Owls are the third least penalized MAC team ... Amara Kamara and John Haley each have two fumble recoveries to tie for the MAC lead in that category with two other league players.

Nick’s Pick: Temple 21 – Army 20

Line: Army by 6

Comment: Temple committed a pair of costly turnovers that led to Bowling Green pulling away last week, as FB Josh Bundy and QB Adam DiMichele both coughed the ball up. The Owls are 79th in the country throwing the ball, 107th on the ground and 109th overall. Army has been stingy against the pass. The Army offense is anything but a high-powered group, but the Black Knights will be home, and they can be explosive if QB Carson Williams plays well. Temple ranks down toward the bottom in the key defensive categories. This is the third consecutive road game for the Owls and, while Army has beaten only Rhode Island, the Black Knights just got tested by playing at Wake Forest and Boston College of the ACC. The Owls have more speed than Army and should earn their first win of the season in a close game.

Akron @ UConn

Akron (2-2, 1-0 MAC East, 1-0 MAC Overall) at UConn (4-0, 1-0 Big East) - Noon

SITE: Rentschler Field (40,000/Natural Grass) - Storrs, Conn.

TELEVISION: ESPN Plus/ESPN Game Plan

SERIES RECORD: UConn leads 2-0 ... the Huskies won 38-37 in 2003 in the last meeting.

COACHES: UA-J.D. Brookhart (20-20, fourth season); UConn-Randy Edsall (45-51, ninth season).

Akron @ UConn - GAME NOTES:

The Zips snapped a two-game losing streak with a conference-opening 27-20 come from behind win over Kent State ... the Huskies are off to a perfect 4-0 start after a 34-14 win at Pittsburgh ... UConn also edged MAC member Temple 22-17 on Sept. 15 ... Akron’s defense forced four turnovers, had three sacks and seven tackles for a loss last week ... Davanzo Tate secured the win vs. KSU with an interception in the end zone as time expired ... DB John Mackey, the Sept. 15 MAC East Division Player of the Week, was injured vs. KSU and will be out for the near future ... the Zips are one of four MAC teams averaging less than 100 rushing yards per game, yet their 97.2 ypg is better than last year’s production of 83.8 ypg ... Akron begins a stretch where it plays four of the next five games on the road ... the Zips lead the MAC in scoring defense, allowing 23.8 ppg, and are tied for first with a plus-seven turnover margin ... UConn is allowing just 11.3 ppg this season.

Nick’s Pick: UConn 28 – Akron 13

Line: UConn by 12

Comment: Connecticut, this week's foe, dealt Akron two stinging losses (in 2000 and 2003) before Brookhart arrived on the scene. Both times, Connecticut kicked late field goals to shock the Zips. Now Akron has the chance to return the favor as UConn comes into the game 4-0. The Zips are first in the MAC in scoring defense (23.8), pass efficiency defense (105.4), red-zone offense (10-for-10), and tied for first in turnover margin (plus-1.75). Akron also is last in the MAC in total offense (242.8 ypg). The Zips are last in the MAC in total offense (242.8), and the running game is averaging less than 100 yards per contest. However, Akron has been opportunistic, going 10-for-10 on red-zone scoring chances, making six of seven field goals and losing just six turnovers. The Zips defense will keep them in this game but the Huskies have too much firepower on offense and will prevail.

Buffalo @ Ball State

Buffalo (1-3, 1-0 MAC East, 1-0 MAC overall) at Ball State (2-2, 1-0 MAC West, 1-1 MAC Overall) - Noon

SITE: Scheumann Stadium (22,500/Field Turf) - Muncie, Ind.

TELEVISION: None.

SERIES RECORD: BSU leads 5-0 ... the Cardinals won the last meeting, 55-25 in 2006 at UB ... three of the meetings have come since the Bulls joined the MAC.

COACHES: UB-Turner Gill (3-13, second season); BSU-Brady Hoke (17-33, fifth season).

UB @ Ball State - GAME NOTES:

Both teams are coming off losses to Big 12 teams ... BSU dropped a 41-40 contest at No. 24 Nebraska ... the Bulls were dealt a 34-21 set back at home vs. Baylor ... the Cardinals’ Nate Davis passed for 422 yards and three TDs and Dante Love grabbed 10 receptions for 214 yards and a score ... Love leads the MAC in receiving yards with 499 and Davis tops the passing yards chart with 1,203 yards ... MiQuale Lewis ranks second in rushing yards with 447 after picking up 122 yards last week, but is out for the season after sustaining a fourth-quarter injury ... the Cardinals also top the league in total offense with their 486.5 yards per game average and have the fewest penalty yards per game at 34.5 ... B.J. Hill nabbed his third interception of 2007 vs. the Cornhuskers ... UB’s James Starks scored all three TDs for the Bulls last week to boost his season total to five, tied for third in the MAC ... Drew Willy suffered three interceptions last week but continues to have a MAC-best 69.2 percent completion rate ... DE Trevor Scott forced two fumbles vs. the Bears and also had two tackles for a loss ... Scott’s 40 yards in tackles for a loss ranks second in the league and he is tied for first in forced fumbles ... UB has produced three consecutive games with at least 21 points for the first time since moving to I-A in 1999 ... true frosh Davonte Shannon had three pass break ups and his first career interception vs. Baylor.

Nick’s Pick: Ball State 45 – Buffalo 26

Line: Ball State by 16.5

Comment: Ball State is turning to its No. 3 tailback, possibly for the rest of the season. True freshman Frank Edmonds, one of the Cardinals' top recruits in this year's signing class, will become the starter. He began the year as the No. 3 tailback but moved up one spot when backup Corey McGee was sidelined. Ball State is starting to put together a dynamic attack. The Cardinals gained 1,149 yards in their past two games, including 610 against nationally ranked Nebraska. It was the fourth-highest total allowed by the Huskers in school history. The Cardinals have been ravaged in the past two games, giving up 1,037 yards. A big chunk of it (521) was allowed on the ground to Navy's difficult-to-defend triple-option offense, and 438 yards came through the air against Nebraska. Baylor surprised the Bulls with their ability to run (256 yards), but most of the damage was self-inflicted by UB itself: five turnovers, a pair of missed field goals and 10 penalties for 81 yards. Buffalo is looking for its first win over Ball State. The Bulls are 0-5 against the Cardinals and 0-3 since joining the MAC. Both Buffalo and Ball State are coming off games against Big 12 Conference foes. Buffalo is averaging 400.7 yards of total offense over the past three games. A year ago, UB totaled 350 yards of total offense only three times all season. Also, the Bulls have scored 21 or more points in each of the last three games, marking the first time since joining the MAC that they have scored at least 21 points in three consecutive games.

> View the VanDelay Sports selection of Ball State hats & merchandise.

Kent State @ Ohio

Kent State (2-2, 0-1 MAC East, 0-1 MAC Overall) at Ohio (2-2, 0-0 MAC East, 0-0 MAC overall) - 3 p.m .

SITE: Peden Stadium (24,000/FieldTurf) - Athens, Ohio

TELEVISION: FSN Ohio

SERIES RECORD: Ohio leads 37-20-2 ... the Bobcats have won the last two games, 17-7 in 2006 and 35-32 in 2005 ...KSU won the 2003 (37-33) and 2004 (42-16) contests ... KSU has taken two of the last three meetings in Athens.

COACHES:

KSU-Doug Martin (14-24, fourth season); OU-Frank Solich (15-13, third season at OU; 73-31, ninth season overall).

Kent @ Ohio - GAME NOTES:

Ohio enters conference play for the first time in 2007 and is coming off a 34-33 home loss to Wyoming ... the Golden Flashes let a 17-7 lead slip away in a conference-opening 27-20 loss at Akron ... this game marks KSU’s fourth road game in five outings ... the Golden Flashes will follow with three of their next four at home ... Eugene Jarvis dashed for 159 yards on 28 carries ... Jarvis is the first KSU player to have four consecutive 100-yard games in one season since Eric Wilkerson in 1987, Joshua Cribbs had three at the end of the 2001 campaign and another to start the 2002 season ... Jarvis leads the MAC and ranks sixth nationally in rushing at 134.8 ypg ... KSU has outgained its opponents by more than 400 yards (1,659 to 1,226) this season but are -2.0 in turnover margin per game ... Ohio forced seven turnover (5 int. and 2 fumbles) last week in its loss as they gave the ball back four times themselves (2 int., 2 fumbles) for a combined 11 turnovers ... despite 33 points, the Bobcats score just one offensive TD on a 68-yard Bard Bower to Andrew Mooney pass play, adding a 94-yard kickoff return from Chris Garrett and a 30-yard interception for a score by Jameson Hartke ... Michael Braunstein booted a school-record four field goals ... KSU leads the MAC in total defense (306.5 ypg allowed) ... Ohio is second in scoring defense (24.8 ppg allowed).

Nick’s Pick: Ohio 24 – Kent State 21

Line: Ohio by 1

Comment: Kent State is trying to downplay the importance of this week's game against defending MAC East Division champion Ohio. But if the Golden Flashes believe they can win the MAC East, then a win in Athens is practically a must. The Golden Flashes lead the MAC in total defense (306.5 yards per game), pass defense yardage (138.0 ypg), rush offense (236.8 ypg), and kick return yardage (32.1 ypr), but those numbers cannot override being last in turnover margin (minus-2.0) through four games. RB Eugene Jarvis is the No. 1-ranked ground gainer in the MAC at 134.8 yards per game. After a solid start, Ohio QB Brad Bower has slumped the last two weeks. In his last two games, Bower is a combined 23 of 44 for 297 yards but has thrown two interceptions and taken 10 sacks. As the running game has bogged down the last two weeks, so has Ohio's overall offensive output. The Bobcats have been dreadful running the ball lately, collecting just 75 yards on 69 carries in the last two games. That means lots of third-and-long situations - the Bobcats are a combined 6-for-32 on third-down conversions during the two-game losing streak. The most obvious concern for Ohio has been its run defense as the Bobcats have been torched on the ground this season. Since the season-opening win over I-AA Gardner-Webb, Ohio has yielded 277, 181 and 267 rushing yards. The 'Cats 197.5 rushing yards allowed per game ranks seventh in the conference. Look for KSU to dominate statistically but to make far too many mistakes again and lose another heartbreaker in Athens.

> View the VanDelay Sports selection of Kent State hats & apparel.

Syracuse @ Miami

Syracuse (1-3, 1-0 Big East) at Miami (1-3, 0-0 MAC East, 1-0 MAC Overall - 3 p.m.

SITE: Yager Stadium (24,286/FieldTurf) - Oxford, Ohio

TELEVISION: ESPN Game Plan/ESPN Plus

SERIES RECORD: First Meeting.

COACHES: SU-Greg Robinson (6-21, third season); Miami-Shane Montgomery (10-17, third season).

Syracuse @ Miami - GAME NOTES:

The RedHawks dropped their third straight game, a 42-0 contest at Colorado Syracuse stunned No. 18 ranked Louisville 38-35 after building a 38-21 fourth quarter lead ... Andrew Robinson threw four TD passes to lead the Orange ... Miami has been outscored 89-10 the last two games after opening the season with a 14-13 win over Ball State and a triple-overtime 41-35 loss to Minnesota ... with their top two running backs out for the year, the RedHawks were limited to 44 rushing yards at Colorado ... the Miami defense produced two interceptions at UC with Joey Hudson and Jeff Thompson providing the picks ... the RedHawks defense produced a third takeaway via a fumble recovery by Jeff Gaines ... three true freshmen saw the first action of their career in LB Ryan Kennedy, LB David Davis and RB Thomas Merriweather ... P Jake Richardson was busy as he punted 10 times for an average of 49.2 ypk ... Richardson’s long punt of 64 yards is the second longest in the MAC this season and he nailed six punts 50-plus yards ... LBs Caleb Bostic and Clayton Mullins rank second and third, respectively, in the league in tackles per game with 12.5 and 12.0.

Nick’s Pick: Syracuse 30 – Miami 17

Line: Syracuse by 4

Comment: Two teams going in opposite directions. Syracuse coming off of a totally shocking with against Louisville while Miami has been pasted these past two weeks 87-10. The RedHawks' top two tailbacks, Brandon Murphy and Andre Bratton, are out for the season with knee injuries. Sophomore quarterback Daniel Raudabaugh struggled in his first start, and Montgomery said he might use Raudabaugh and senior Mike Kokal against the Orange. This is the worst Miami's offense has played in coach Shane Montgomery's seven years with the program. It's hard to criticize a defense that has been left on the field for too long. Still, Miami was outgained 634 yards to 149 by Colorado. Expect another long afternoon for the RedHawks.

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Eastern Michigan @ Vanderbilt

Eastern Michigan (2-2, 1-1 MAC West, 1-1 MAC Overall) at Vanderbilt (2-1, 1-1 SEC) - 6 p.m. (CT)

SITE: Vanderbilt Stadium (39,773/Natural Grass) - Nashville, Tenn.

TELEVISION: None

SERIES RECORD: First meeting.

COACHES: EMU-Jeff Genyk (11-27, fourth season): VU-Bobby Johnson (17-44, sixth season at school; 62-37, ninth season overall).

GAME NOTES:

The Eagles evened their record with a 38-15 win over Howard as Andy Schmitt threw for four TDs ... the Eagles second win also surpassed last season’s total ... EMU hasn’t been 3-2 during a season since 2005 when they beat Central Michigan and Kent State back-to-back to reach the 3-2 mark ... Schmitt has five scoring passes this year after throwing for just two all of last season ... LB Daniel Holtzclaw was credited with a career-high 19 tackles vs. Howard and ranks first in the MAC with 12.8 tackles per game ... Holtzclaw, a junior, has 256 career tackles to his credit ... Vanderbilt was idle last week and last played in a 31-17 win over Ole Miss on Sept. 15 ... this is the Commodores fourth consecutive home game ... Vandy also hosts MAC member Miami on Oct. 27 ... Cassen Jackson-Garrison rushed for 119 yards and three TDs vs. the Rebels.

Nick’s Pick: Vandy 33 – Eastern Michigan 16

Line: Vandy by 20

Comment: This game is simple for the Commodores – they MUST win this game for any shot at bowl eligibility. Vanderbilt must deal with the Eagles' passing game, which has found new life and has been presenting challenges to opposing defenses. Eastern Michigan sophomore quarterback Andy Schmitt recorded a career-best four touchdown passes against Howard. The Eagles are suddenly soaring on offense and have moved up to fifth in the MAC in passing efficiency, as EMU's quarterbacks have combined for five touchdowns and only two interceptions. Eastern Michigan has also more than doubled its scoring average after putting up 59 points the past two weeks. More important, the Eagles have stopped hurting themselves in the red zone, converting on six of eight red-zone chances during their two-game winning streak. The Eagles possess the MAC's third-best scoring defense, allowing only 24.8 points per game, and they are fourth in overall defense, yielding 390.5 yards per game. EMU has also had success in getting to the opposing quarterback, recording nine sacks for 61 yards, which is second in the MAC. Eastern will play tough, but Vandy is a much better team.

Western Kentuky @ Bowling Green

SITE: Doyt Perry Stadium (24,000/FieldTurf) - Bowling Green, Ohio

TELEVISION: BCSN

SERIES RECORD: First meeting

COACHES: WKU-David Elson (33-18, fifth season); BGSU-Gregg Brandon (32-20, fifth season).

GAME NOTES:

The Falcons opened league play with a 48-35 triumph over Temple last week ... the Hilltoppers are making the transition from I-AA to I-A and will compete in the Sun Belt beginning in 2008 ... after a season opening 49-3 loss at defending national champion Florida, WKU has reeled off wins over West Virginia Tech, Eastern Kentucky and Middle Tennessee State ... they also face MAC member Ball State on Oct. 13 ... the Falcons offer a strong passing game anchored by an o-line that has allowed first-year starter Tyler Sheehan to pass for 1,034 yards and seven touchdowns in three games ... BG, which led the MAC in rushing last year with 177 ypg, is last in 2007 with 81 ypg, however the Falcons have produced a league-leading 32.3 points per game and 352 passing yards per game ... in the win over Temple, Freddie Barnes had eight receptions, Corey Partridge seven, freshman Willie Geer five catches and Marques Parks four ... in 24 career games, Kenny Lewis has six interceptions, two forced fumbles, one fumble recovery, a touchdown and three blocked kicks ... BG had six sacks vs. Temple with Diyral Briggs recording two ... next week BG plays at Boston College then closes with seven consecutive MAC games.

Nick’s Pick: BGSU 42 – Western Kentucky 23

Line: NL

Comment: A rare battle of “Bowling Green’s” as the Western Kentucky from Bowling Green (KY) travels to Bowling Green (OH) to play the Falcons. The strong play by quarterback Tyler Sheehan is one of the reasons for Bowling Green's surprising start. Sheehan had not started a game until the opener at Minnesota. He ranks second in the MAC with 1,034 yards. The BGSU defense has been overlooked due to the explosive offense, as seven players have picked up a fumble or interception. Cornerback Kenny Lewis and linebacker Erique Dozier each have one interception and one fumble recovery. The Falcons rank last in the conference in rushing with an average of 81 yards per game. Defensively, BG is miles ahead of last year's unit. The Falcons recorded nine takeaways in three games compared to 19 all of last season. The defense owns 22 tackles for a loss through three games. The Falcons will role this weekend but make no mistake, this WKU team is pretty good too.

Western Michigan @ Toledo

Western Michigan (1-3, 0-0 MAC West, 0-0 MAC Overall) at Toledo (1-3, 0-1 MAC West, 0-1 MAC Overall) - 7 p.m.

SITE: Glass Bowl (26,248/NeXturf) - Toledo, Ohio

TELEVISION: BCSN (delayed telecast)

SERIES RECORD: Toledo leads 36-25 ... last year’s 31-10 WMU victory snapped UT’s five-game win streak in the series ... UT has won 15 of the last 18 meetings since 1989 ... the Rockets have won the last nine meetings at the Glass Bowl.

COACHES: WMU-Bill Cubit (16-12, second season at school; 50-30-1, 8th season overall); UT-Tom Amstutz (51-28, seventh season).

WMU @ Toledo - GAME NOTES:

Both teams avoided an 0-4 start with their first win of 2007 last week ... the Rockets fought back for a 36-35 win over Iowa State in the Glass Bowl ... the Broncos subdued Central Connecticut State 51-14 at Waldo Stadium ... the Rockets are 39-5 in their last 44 games at home and they overcame an 11-point, fourth-quarter deficit for the win last week ... among the early successes vs. ISU was a season-long 95-yard scoring drive to open the game ... in games vs. Central Michigan and Iowa State, QB Aaron Opelt is 44-of-68 (64.7 percent) for 533 yards, three touchdowns and one interception, and in outings vs. Purdue and Kansas he is 20-of-46 (43.5 percent) for 107 yards, no touchdowns and four interceptions ... Jalen Parmele had 243 all-purpose yard vs. ISU (74 rushing, 29 receiving, 140 kickoff returns) ... the Broncos rolled up its highest point total vs. CCSU since a 56-point output vs. William and Mary in 2003 ... WMU had three TDs each via the rush and pass and added another on an interception return by Boston McCornell ... C Robbie Krutilla did not start last week, snapping a string of 38 straight starts ... Jamarko Simmons ranks third nationally in receptions per game with his 10.3 average (41 receptions in 4 games) ... Jim Laney tops the MAC in punting with his 46.9 average, which is also third nationally (the MAC record is 47.9 set in 2003 by UCF’s Matt Prater).

Nick’s Pick: Western Michigan 35 – Toledo 27

Line: Western by 1.5

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