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MAC Tournament Quarterfinals - NIU vs. Toledo

If you haven’t heard, VanDelay Sports is sending me to the MAC Tournament at Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland to cover this season’s action. You can expect many short, blog-type updates over the next several days of the tournament. Before Thursday’s games though, let’s take a look at each match-up, focusing on each teams keys to victory.

#2 Northern Illinois vs. #7 Toledo

This game is everybody’s pick for an upset, which isn’t all that shocking since UT has won 8 of its last 9 and NIU grabbed the #2 seed by virtue of winning the West division, which is something like winning a prison beauty pageant (not the most distinguishing honor in the world).

NIU keys to victory:

Ball control – Limit turnovers
Find open looks from 3
Shoot, Shoot, Shoot

Northern Illinois is the best shooting team (both FG% and 3-pt%) in the conference. If they take more shots than Toledo they should be looking good, but can they control the ball well enough for that to happen?

UT Keys to Victory

Force the turnover
Limit 2nd and 3rd chance opportunities
Points in the paint.

Toledo is the best team in the conference at stealing the ball. In fact as a team, the Rockets are 6th in the entire nation in steals per game, which is pretty impressive. NIU shoots so well, especially from three, that limiting their shots will be a big plus for the Rockets. Offensively, while Toledo has the 2nd best FG% in the MAC, their 3-pt% is at the bottom of the teams in the conference. Joplin’s crew needs to remember to work the ball inside, and not to settle for contested 3’s.

What I Think
A lot of people are making a lot out of Toledo’s momentum coming into this game, but don’t forget that Northern Illinois has some major momentum too, winning four straight including a blowout in K-Zoo with the West title on the line. If NIU’s shooters can see the ball enough they will escape with a hard-fought win. I think this happens and Northern Illinois barely avoids the upset.

By Dan Whitmyer, VanDelaySports.com Head Basketball Writer

published 03.07.06

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