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MAC Basketball Tournament Preview

Mid-American hoops junkies are beginning to buzz about the chances Akron has at an at-large selection this season. Make no mistake about it, the MAC will have one, and only one, representative in the NCAA Tournament yet again this year. There just isn’t a team with enough of a profile to ensure that two teams from the MAC are dancing this season. Some could call this a disappointment, but I say it should at least lead to four high-energy days of basketball in Cleveland.

There are five teams sitting atop the MAC with a realistic shot of making the NCAA Tournament, and each team knows that winning the Conference Tournament is their only real chance to go dancing. Here’s a look ahead at what I’m expecting to see this week in Cleveland.

Most Anticipated Match-ups

Kent vs. Akron
These two MAC rivals, whose campuses are about 20 minutes apart, and have never matched up in Cleveland. Could this finally be the year? Toledo clinched the one-seed versus Central Michigan Sunday afternoon setting up the Flashes and Zips to meet in the semifinals in Cleveland if both teams manage to take care of business in the quarters. If you’re a MAC fan (with no affiliation to the other schools on this side of the bracket) you’ve got to be rooting for this to happen. With both schools such bitter rivals, so close in proximity, and so close to Cleveland, the Q should be rocking if we’re lucky enough to see this one.

Ohio vs. Miami
It’s not a MAC Tournament if the Bobcats don’t face the RedHawks. They’ll meet in the quarterfinals if Ohio can knockoff BG in the opening round (something that certainly isn’t a given). If it happens it will be the 3rd year in a row, and 4th out of the last 5 that OU and Miami have played at the Q. Like with Kent/Akron, these schools are fierce rivals and always seem to play close games in the tournament.

Team Capsules
Let’s look at the five teams with realistic shots at winning the MAC Tournament and securing the Mid-American Conference automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.

Toledo Rockets

Key to Victory: Forcing Turnovers
Opponents shoot well against the Rockets, a team who doesn't rebound particularly well. To make up for these deficiencies they need to pressure opponents’ ball handlers and create some steals, which Toledo is usually quite adept at doing.

Player to Watch: Justin Ingram
Keonta Howell actually leads the team in scoring, but Ingram is the guy who makes the Rockets go. He’s solid at running the point and wreaks havoc on the defensive end, averaging two steals per game. If Ingram’s game is on, not only will he be scoring points, but he’ll be getting Howell, Valencia, and Payne involved as well. If Toledo wins the MAC Tournament I’d be shocked if Ingram’s not the Tournament MVP.

Outlook: The Rockets did good for themselves in securing the one-seed and staying on the opposite side of the bracket from Akron and Kent State. If I’m a Toledo fan I’m rooting for Miami to emerge versus Ohio, as the Rockets typically handle the RedHawks with more ease than the Bobcats.

Akron Zips

Key to Victory: Shoot The Ball and Challenge Shots
It seems like an odd key, but the Zips have a great FG%, especially in the paint, and they rebound the ball extremely well. If they shoot more times than their opponents they’ll probably be looking pretty good. This is especially true with Romeo Travis and Jeremiah Wood cleaning the glass on both ends.

Player to Watch: Romeo Travis
His effort has lacked at times throughout the past, including at some points this season, but over the past 5 games it has looked like he has finally turned a corner. Romeo has been playing very well and doing so on a consistent basis. With Travis and Wood both lining up in the frontcourt, there are few teams with the muscle to match-up with them.

Outlook: Akron has looked consistently good this season. They haven’t lost a game by more than 5 points, which I think is a direct result of having a team that values the ball so well, averaging only 12.4 turnovers per game. For the Zips it’s going to come down to if they can take care of business against Kent State in a possible semifinal match-up. Kent has been like a big brother to Akron in basketball over the past 10 years. This is the year that Akron could have the mental and physical toughness to surpass them.

Kent State Golden Flashes

Key to Victory: Don’t Dribble Too Much and Don’t Settle For Bad Shots
One of the tenets of a Jim Christian team is good defense. This Kent team is no different, and defense shouldn’t be a concern. On the offensive end, the Golden Flashes are at their best when passing around, reversing the ball, catching the defense out of position and finding the open man. On the other hand, the Kent offense can become stagnant when the Golden Flashes forget to set-up their teammates and try to create too much.

Player to Watch: Omni Smith
It seems like Kent always has a senior guard who is adept at scoring. Smith is this year’s version. If Kent hopes to win their second straight MAC Tournament, getting Smith going to the tune of about 20 ppg would be a big help.

Outlook: Kent State isn’t quite as solid or experienced as they were last season when they won the MAC Championship, but they’re still Kent State and they’re still coached by Jim Christian. Kent does not beat themselves. They play nine players 10 or more minutes per game, meaning they could have the horses to go all out versus Akron and still have some gas in the tank for the Championship Game.

Miami RedHawks

Key to Victory: Avoid Long Scoring Droughts
Scoring droughts plagued the RedHawks in their last two games versus Ohio and BG. Charlie Coles needs to convince his players to keep working it inside and to let Tim Pollitz, Nathan Peavy, and Michael Bramos go to work. Miami isn’t as sharp of a 3-pt shooting team as they have been in years past, and when they insist on firing away from long distance they can go through long droughts and have trouble scoring consistently.

Player to Watch: Tim Pollitz
He’s the key. Pollitz has been close to unstoppable in MAC play this year. He’s shifty enough to lose bigger players with some nifty moves in the paint and he’s strong enough to push around smaller defenders. He’s also a great passer. Miami needs to get the ball to Pollitz on the low block. He’ll either find a high percentage shot, or set one up for someone else.

Outlook: Miami is backing into the tournament with losses on the road to Ohio and BG, which is never good news. Also, this certainly isn’t their goal, but in blowing an opportunity to lock-up a bye versus Buffalo, Ohio has stolen Miami’s chances to get back into their rhythm against the 12-seed in an opening round game. Not to mention the fact that Ohio has sent Miami home from Cleveland each of the past 2 years. Also, Miami’s inexperienced backcourt does not match-up very well versus Toledo’s guards. Not a good set of events for the RedHawks.

Ohio Bobcats

Key to Victory: Feed The Post
When Ohio settles for long range shots they usually suffer. When they work the ball inside to Leon Williams and Jerome Tillman they benefit. It’s that simple. The Bobcats need to work the ball inside. They need to get it to Williams and Tillman and they need Whitney Davis and Sonny Troutman to drive to the hoop rather than settling for jump shots. Also, if they could convince Bubba Walther to try some 18-footers in lieu of the 35-footers that he likes to throw up, that would be a positive too.

Player to Watch: Leon Williams
Williams can take over a game, and as a freshman he did take over this tournament back in 2005. He’s at his best when his teammates feed him often, and drive into the lane giving him a chance to work the offensive glass on their misses. He can lead this team to victory, but he’s definitely going to need some help doing so.

Outlook: The skill of their starting five gives them a puncher’s chance, to borrow a boxing term. However, the truth is, this team is Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. They can beat anyone and they can lose to anyone. No lead or deficit is safe. The Bobcats could catch fire and win the tournament, but I don’t know if the consistency, depth, or coaching is there for them to do it.

So What’s Gonna Happen?

Really, it’s anybody’s guess, but here’s mine. I think it’s a 3-team race between Toledo, Akron, and Kent State, and I’d be fairly surprised if any other team wins the tournament.

I like Akron, especially with how well they control the ball and rebound. I think they might be the most balanced team in the MAC. However, I still don’t know that they can beat Kent State in Cleveland, and I think doing so could take a lot out of them, leaving them prime for a “letdown game” the next night.

I like how much depth Kent State has. I also like their defense and their balanced attack, but I don’t know that they will score enough points to beat Akron or Toledo. Unless Omni Smith or Armon Gates catches fire, which is quite possible, I see the Golden Flashes having too many demons to overcome on the offensive end.

Toledo set themselves up very well. They’ll face an incredibly beatable Central or Eastern Michigan in the quarterfinals, and keep Kent and Akron on the opposite side of the bracket from them. I love how much their guards harass opposing backcourts, and think Justin Ingram, Keonta Howell, Tino Valencia, and Kashif Payne all give them serious scoring options. They’re the one-seed, so it’s certainly not going out on a limb, but give me Toledo to win it. Either way, should be an exciting week of basketball.

MAC Basketball Tournament