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MAC Tournament Preview - MAC East Teams

Previewing the MAC East teams for the 2009 MAC Basketball Tournament

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A wild conference regular season ended Sunday and finally set the seeds for Cleveland. I’ll make predictions later on but this tournament has to be one of the most unpredictable in the country.

#1 Bowling Green (18-12, 11-5)

Key Player: Nate Miller, 12.7 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 2.1 steals per game, 46.7% FG

X-Factor: Brian Moten

The potential for a big game scoring outbreak is there for Moten. He has had a few 20-point performances and strong shooting from him would help Bowling Green’s sometimes-slow offense.

Strengths: Shooting defense, blocking shots, 3 pt. shooting

Weaknesses: Free throw shooting, interior scoring

The Falcons secure the top seed after an absolute thrashing of Ohio Sunday on its senior day. They scored 75 and shot 60 percent, well over their season average. Bowling Green allows the lowest field goal percentage in the MAC and held Ohio to 27.5 percent shooting. This team is about defense and solid execution over flash.

Nate Miller is a very good all-around player. He creates turnovers and then hits shots on the other end. Moten has breakout potential but has not been a factor in some games. If Moten isn’t going, it is usually senior Darryl Clements who fills the void. The play of Otis Polk will also be significant. He is the leading rebounder and has a knack for blocking shots. On a team that goes by its defense, the big Polk can really disturb an opponent’s offense.

Bowling Green is a surprise regular-season champion. It lost three of its first four but has lost only two MAC games since. Louis Orr must be commended for the job he has done turning this group around from last season. The Falcons have flown under the radar yet are the top dog going into Cleveland. I do not think they will come away with the bid and will be upset before the final. Then again, maybe I’m just another one underestimating this Falcons team.

#3 Buffalo (19-10, 11-5)

Key Player: Rodney Pierce, 14.7 PPG

X-Factor: Greg Gamble

The senior does a little bit of everything. He is a good rebounder and distributor. On average, Gamble doles out 3.8 assists per game. However, he also averages 2.6 turnovers per game.

Strengths: Rebounding, depth

Weaknesses: Free throw shooting, 3 pt. defense, field goal percentage

Another surprising squad has been the Bulls. Preseason rankings placed them at bottom of the conference. After the win against Miami Sunday, the Bulls will get a first-round bye. Buffalo has shown great fight throughout the season and did so against Miami overcoming a 13-point halftime deficit.

The season’s second stint has not been as rosy as the first. Buffalo ran out to a lead in the MAC standings with a nine-game win streak from Mid-January to Mid-February. After that, the Bulls have lost five of their last seven. They rebounded with two close wins (over Ohio and Miami) in the final three but have not played as well in the most crucial part of the regular season.

What makes Buffalo dangerous is the ability of four or five different guys to beat you on any given night. Rodney Pierce is the only player to average double-digit points but so many players contribute. Reggie Witherspoon uses as many as 11 or 12 in the rotation. Buffalo’s depth and three scoring options (Pierce, Gamble and Calvin Betts) give it an advantage in this back-to-back game format. The late losing streak is a bit worrisome but look for Buffalo to carry the momentum from the final day win to at least the championship game.

#4 Miami (17-12, 10-6)

Key Player: Michael Bramos, 17.7 PPG

X-Factor: Tyler Dierkers,

Dierkers is capable of a double-double and adding an inside scoring presence to Bramos’ outside shots or penetration.

Strengths: Defense, Charlie Coles’ and Bramos’ experience

Weaknesses: Consistent scoring, depth

Miami must impose its style of play on the opponent. That means keeping the score in the 50s or 60s. The Redhawks are 0-4 in games in which they’ve given up 70 or more. Sunday they allowed Buffalo to reach 70 in a tough overtime loss. They are just not that high scoring of a team and have only reached 70 points in three of their 29 games.

Bramos takes a lot of shots and needs to hit at a more efficient rate for Miami to have success. If he is off, Miami does not have another go-to guy. Dierkers is a good role player but the team goes as Bramos goes.

The fact that Miami’s only true scorer is Bramos puts them at a disadvantage. Its strong defense counters that but the question is whether it will be enough in a grind-it-out game. The Redhawks could be looking at this type of matchup in the quarterfinals against Akron. The two split the season series and both are methodical, defense-oriented teams. If Miami gets out of that game, they will reach the final.

#5 Akron (19-12, 10-6)

Key Player: Chris McKnight, 11.3 PPG, 45% FG

X-Factor: Anthony ‘Humpty’ Hitchens

The young point guard has shown flashes of excellent play but growing pains as well.

Strengths: FG and 3 pt. defense, Keith Dambrot’s coaching experience, free throw shooting

Weaknesses: Shooting deficiencies, freshman PG

Akron has not won back-to-back contests since its run through the MAC West. Sunday’s loss is a very painful one as it forces them to be in Cleveland Tuesday and win an extra game.

The Zips have offensive problems. They rarely shoot better from the field than their opponent and when they lose it’s because their stout defense is not quite enough to make up for the lack of offense. Execution is very good, as Akron is the best free throw shooting team in the MAC and plays out the fundamentals of coach Dambrot’s defensive philosophy.

Pieces are in place for Akron to make a run. Besides Buffalo, I think the Zips are the most well rounded team in the MAC. The McKnight brothers provide inside scoring punch, Nate Linhart senior leadership and freshmen Humpty Hitchens and Brett McClanahan the potential for breakout. Hitchens can be a plus or minus at the point position. His youth sometimes shows through in the form of turnovers. However, he has improved in that aspect and put together some very good showings.

If Akron can advance past Toledo (which shouldn’t be a problem), the matchup against Miami will loom large. Akron has split with all of the East teams and getting past Miami could lead them to a NCAA berth. Anything short of that will again end the Zips’ season in heartbreak.

#6 Kent State (18-13, 10-6)

Key Player: Al Fisher, 15.1 PPG, 86% free throw shooting

X-Factor: Jordan Mincy

The senior guard has emerged out of nowhere to string together career-best performances. Averaging just 5.3 PPG, Mincy has scored 27, 19, 14 and 13 in the past month.

Strengths: Potentially explosive scorers, assist/turnover ratio

Weaknesses: Inconsistent play from its shooters, free-throw shooting

Kent State will be playing in a round earlier than the quarterfinal of the MAC Tournament for the first time ever. The Flashes have been in the tournament 26 times and received a bye each year since every team was sent to the tournament starting in 2000. This time they will play in the first round Tuesday.

The big win over rival Akron hurt the Zips more than it helped Kent State, who holds steady as the 6 seed. The Flashes did it without Chris Singletary, who was ejected two minutes into the game after punching Akron’s Nate Linhart.

Al Fisher more than filled the void Sunday with 18 points, six rebounds, five assists and three steals. It seems that Fisher brings his game to another level on the biggest stages (i.e. last year’s BracketBuster win at St. Mary’s). He is a dynamic player who has the ability to will the Flashes to victory. He commits a decent amount of turnovers and has his off games but can be lethal when he turns it on.

Kent State is playing good basketball with ten wins in its final 12. The scoring punch is there with three averaging double digits (Fisher, Singletary and Tyree Evans). The Flashes have pedigree and holdovers from the team that advanced to the NCAA Tournament last season. This team is very capable of making a run. A tough matchup would await them in the quarters against Buffalo. The teams split the series, with Kent State winning in overtime last week at home.

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#9 Ohio (14-16, 7-9)

Key Player: Jerome Tillman, 17.9 PPG, 8 RPG, 51.5% Shooting

X-Factor: Steven Coleman

The freshman has game breaking ability. He shot lights out against Miami and Buffalo and is one player who could give the Bobcats a surge of life in Cleveland.

Strengths: Tillman, 3 pt. shooting, Michael Allen’s assist/turnover ratio

Weaknesses: Play away from home, rebounding, consistent defense

Some will look to carry momentum from Sunday into the tourney. Ohio will look to forget everything from its 75-41 trainwreck loss to Bowling Green. The Bobcats only lost to the Falcons by one earlier in the season at home but they were never in it Sunday.

Heading into Cleveland, it seems like the wheels may be falling off for the Bobcats. Freshmen Frankie Dobbs, Stacey Waters and walk-on Adetunji Adedipe saw well-over their usual minutes as seniors Michael Allen and Jerome Tillman were on the bench. Tillman logged a season-low one point and two rebounds in just twenty minutes. Before that he had scored in double figures in every game of the campaign.

Coach Groce was not happy about this loss and it looks like he was trying to send some sort of message to the upperclassmen. Any way you look at it this is not good news for Ohio with a couple days before its first round game.

The Bobcats have not won a meaningful game away from the Convo since they beat Miami in January. It will be a neutral site in Cleveland but the Bobcats lost to Lamar (RPI 210) at a neutral site in December. They do not rebound well, have not played consistent offense/defense in more than a handful of games of late and seem to be in disarray. Ohio will play Tuesday against Western Michigan, who they lost to by 14 in Kalamazoo. It is hard to find many positives for this Ohio group right now. Its only real hope is that the seniors are awoken and go to Cleveland on a mission to not end their careers on such a bad note.

2009 MAC Tournament Predictions

2009 MAC Tournament First Round Predictions

• #7 Central Michigan over #10 Eastern Michigan
• #6 Kent State over #11 Northern Illinois
• #8 Western Michigan over #9 Ohio
• #5 Akron over #12 Toledo

2009 MAC Tournament Quarterfinals Predictions

• #7 Central Michigan over #2 Ball State
• #3 Buffalo over #6 Kent State
• #1 Bowling Green over #8 Western Michigan
• #5 Akron over #4 Miami

2009 MAC Tournament Semifinals Predictions

• #3 Buffalo over #7 Central Michigan
• #5 Akron over #1 Bowling Green

2009 MAC Tournament Championship Prediction

• #3 Buffalo over #5 Akron

By Connor Kiesel
VanDelay Sports Staff Writer
Published March 9, 2009